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AM Power Report: Dailies could open week varied amid conflicting fundamentals

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AM Power Report: Dailies could open week varied amid conflicting fundamentals

Following a mixed day of trade Dec. 8, next-day power could open the workweek on a mixed tenor Monday, Dec. 11, as generally softer demand expectations for Tuesday run counter to a steady uptick in natural gas prices.

Ending 0.9 cent higher Dec. 8, NYMEX January 2018 natural gas futures were trending higher early Monday ahead of the opening bell. At 7:04 a.m. ET, the front-month contract was up 3.2 cents to $2.824/MMBtu on technical buying and short covering amid weather-side support.

Day-ahead gas markets could advance in the week's opening session, amid the early gains in the futures area Monday.

On the demand side, forecasts suggest diverging but predominantly declining load as the new workweek unfolds.

In the Northeast, demand in New England could see highs near 17,800 MW on Monday and Tuesday, while New York load will likely hit highs at 21,306 MW on Monday and 21,292 MW on Tuesday. In the Mid-Atlantic, load in PJM Western region could touch a high near 58,836 MW on Monday and 60,365 MW on Tuesday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic demand is called to reach 39,221 MW at the return of the workweek and 38,396 MW on Tuesday.

In the Midwest, demand in PJM AEP region is also poised to buck the broad retreat to crest at 18,532 MW on Monday and 18,908 MW on Tuesday, while PJM ComEd load is expected to peak at 14,472 MW on Monday and 13,713 MW on Tuesday.

In the South, load in Texas should near 44,624 MW at the start of the fresh business week and 43,451 MW on Tuesday. In the West, California demand could top out at 30,320 MW on Monday and 30,950 MW on Tuesday.

At the term markets, power prices for January 2018 were mixed but mostly higher ahead of the weekend, as an uptick at the natural gas futures complex implied a boost to fueling costs.

In the East, prompt-month power added more than $1 in deals carried out at close to $79 in New England and tacked on about 90 cents in transactions done around $44 at PJM West. Farther along the forward curve, February 2018 power was marked in the mid-$70s in New England and also in the low $40s at PJM West.

In the Midwest, a 90-cent increase took PJM AD January 2018 to an index at roughly $38 and a 20-cent uptick brought PJM Northern Illinois January 2018 to an average above $34. A roughly 70-cent gain steered MISO Indiana front-month power to an index at approximately $37. February 2018 power was likewise quoted in the low to high $30s across the three hubs.

In the South, price activity for month-ahead power at the ERCOT markets deflated by about 30-40 cents to indexes between $23 and $28. Regional price action for February 2018 power similarly ran through the low to high $20s.

In the West, California saw power trades for January 2018 climb by more than $1 to an index atop $37 at North Path-15 and tack on more than $2 to average near $41 at South Path-15. Similar deals rose by about 40 cents at Mid-Columbia but slumped by 15 cents at Palo Verde to average between $27 and $28 at both hubs. Power transactions for February 2018 were assessed in the mid- to high $30s in California and in the mid-$20s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.