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Winter storm buoys East Coast power prices; Northwest, Southwest dailies sag

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Winter storm buoys East Coast power prices; Northwest, Southwest dailies sag

Next-day power prices in the U.S. leaned mixed to slightly higher Tuesday, Feb. 6, despite pressures from varied load forecasts.

After posting losses the day prior, the front-month March natural gas futures contract rebounded Tuesday and closed the session with a 1.2-cent gain to settle at $2.759/MMBtu.

According to the National Weather Service, "A winter storm will bring areas of snow, freezing rain, and sleet to portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast into Wednesday."

In other supply, a cutback at Tennessee Valley Authority's Sequoyah 1 in Tennessee worked to pull down total U.S. nuclear plant availability to 95.79% early Feb. 6.

East values firm as winter storm engulfs region

Next-day power prices in the East were flat to higher Tuesday, with the upside supported by forecasts for a winter storm to hit parts of the region, which should support load on some regional grids.

At next-day markets, gains of more than $10 were noted at the New England Mass hub, with power traded in the mid- to high $70s. PJM West deals were steady to Monday and ranged in the low $30s.

On the other hand, day-ahead values in the Northeast sagged, with the Mass hub and New York Zone A shedding $1-$2 to average $74.55 and $34.10, respectively. Prices at New York Zone G and New York Zone J tumbled by $6-$8 to average $37.93 and $46.62, respectively.

Demand is projected to diverge by the middle of the workweek with New England load possibly reaching highs of 17,320 MW on Tuesday and 17,500 MW on Wednesday while New York demand should touch peaks of 21,034 MW on Tuesday and 20,892 MW on Wednesday. The PJM Mid-Atlantic region could top out at 39,567 MW on Tuesday and 38,894 MW on Wednesday while the PJM Western region should crest at 60,383 MW on Tuesday and 60,846 MW on Wednesday.

Midwest markets firm despite lower load forecasts

Despite slack midweek demand outlooks, power prices in the Midwest were steady Tuesday. Packages at MISO Indiana changed hands in the low $30s, up by less than $1 on the day.

Demand is set to fall by the midweek, with load at the PJM AEP region possibly reaching 19,398 MW on Tuesday and 19,003 MW on Wednesday. Demand at the PJM ComEd region should touch 14,022 MW on Tuesday and 13,982 MW on Wednesday.

Texas DAMs notch gains with demand support

Strong Wednesday demand forecasts helped dailies in Texas notch gains on Tuesday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is forecasting demand highs of 45,375 MW on Tuesday and 46,672 MW on Wednesday. Boosted by demand, next-day power at ERCOT North added $1, as deals spanned the mid- to high $20s.

Day-ahead markets added $1 to $2 from Monday and averaged $27.04 at ERCOT Houston, $27.29 at ERCOT North, $27.48 at ERCOT South and $27.33 at ERCOT West.

Northwest, Southwest values tick lower; Calif. dailies steady

Mixed to predominantly lower moves defined power trading activity in the West on Tuesday, as most markets shrugged off firm load forecasts.

The California ISO is calling for load peaks of 28,032 MW on Tuesday and 28,462 MW on Wednesday. Supported by the demand outlook, power at North Path-15 and South Path-15 added not quite $1 from Monday and ranged in the high $20s.

On the other hand, markets in the Northwest turned lower with Mid-Columbia packages shedding roughly $2 to the low to mid-teens. California-Oregon Border dailies were exchanged in the low $20s, down by less than $1 from Monday.

Dailies in the Southwest followed suit, with Palo Verde deals down by less than $1 in the high teens. Mead values slipped by $1 and changed hands in the low $20s.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.