Bigger turbines and more of them: the momentum in the European wind sector is set to continue for the next few years, according to a new industry report. But the market faces uncertainties: growth is not universal, and beyond 2023, expansion could slow.
Installations of wind projects, both onshore and offshore, could reach record highs across Europe this year, according to the report, produced by industry group WindEurope, which forecasts the addition of some 16.8 GW in 2019.
Much of the growth anticipated under the central, or best estimate, scenario is set to come from Spain, Sweden and Norway, which are expecting high volumes of installations towards the end of the year, even though growth fell short of expectations in the first half of the year. Spain is set to install 1.8 GW of wind power, Sweden will build 2 GW and Norway 1 GW.
An exception to the trend is Germany, which in 2019 had its worst first half of the year since 2000 "due to permitting issues and poorly designed auctions," WindEurope said.
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According to the group, it is typical to see significantly higher installations in the second half of the year, as summer months offer better weather conditions for the commissioning of new turbines.
Nearly 300 GW by 2023
In addition to the central scenario, the report also includes low and high scenarios, which largely reflect legislative activity worsening or boosting market conditions. The scenarios lay out a corridor of 254 GW to 299 GW of cumulative installed capacity by 2023.
"All three scenarios reflect potential developments in EU regulatory frameworks, national policies, project development timelines and the performance of the wind industry in winning capacity in upcoming auctions and tenders," WindEurope said. "This uncertainty weighs heavily on the supply chain and could impact the significant cost reductions achieved in recent years."
This year is set to be a good one for offshore wind, the group said, with a large number of projects under construction in the U.K. and Germany. In the first half of this year, 1.9 GW of new offshore wind capacity was installed, up from 1.1 GW last year. The lion's share of growth will come from the commissioning of the world's largest offshore project, the 1.2-GW Hornsea 1 wind farm in the U.K.
Installations could dip slightly in 2020, but strong increases in expected installations in Germany and Italy mean 2022 and 2023 may bring record years, WindEurope said. By 2023, Germany will continue to be the country with the most installed capacity, at 68 GW-77 GW, followed by Spain with 30 GW-35 GW.
Longer-term stagnation
"In 2023 we expect to see strong activity in the offshore sector in the Netherlands, Ireland, Norway and France," WindEurope said. Beyond that, spatial planning and permitting issues in some geographies could bring "a period of stagnation," according to the report.
Under the report's central scenario, between now and 2023, offshore installations in Europe will represent 18.2 GW of capacity, or about 20% of the wind market during the period, compared to 17% in the previous five years.
Onshore installations will reach 72 GW by 2023 under the central scenario, with Germany in the lead at 11.2 GW despite public opposition and minimum distance requirements, which WindEurope sees as a "challenge for the recovery of the German market."
Additional wind capacity will be added through repowering, the recommissioning of older wind farms, which WindEurope expects to add 1.4 GW of capacity in Germany, 0.9 GW in Italy, 0.6 GW in Spain and 0.5 GW in Denmark by 2023.
WindEurope has lowered its forecast for the decommissioning of wind farms due to rising electricity prices, driven by increased emissions trading system prices and the continuous phaseout of coal around Europe. Between 3.9 GW and 4.8 GW of capacity will be decommissioned over the next five years, it said, meaning more than 14,000 blades need to be reused or recycled.
Meanwhile, between 1.9 and 2.3 GW are set to be repowered, WindEurope said, while the rest will be fully decommissioned. "Government policy and regulation is still not as supportive of repowering as it should be," the group said.
Bigger turbines
WindEurope also commented on the future of wind turbine technology, observing a "dramatic shift" in turbine design concepts, which maximize energy yields.
Nearly half of the onshore turbines ordered in the second quarter of this year were 4 MW or more, and these will be installed over the course of the next few years.
Offshore turbines are also getting bigger. "We expect most of the turbines installed from 2019-23 to be 8 MW or above," WindEurope said. Larger turbines exceeding 10 MW will also be installed, for example on the Hollande Kust Zuid wind farm in the Netherlands, which will feature 10-MW units from Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA.

