trending Market Intelligence /marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/h01ren9qfadzrhq1t1f60w2 content esgSubNav
Log in to other products

Login to Market Intelligence Platform

 /


Looking for more?

Contact Us
In This List

'Incredibles 2' eyes record opening to shake Disney out of 'Solo' slump

TMT News & Research: 2020 Recap

Blog

Charter, DIRECTV and Comcast rank as the top 'RSN-friendly' MVPDs

Quibi's $2 billion bet on mobile video fizzles out

Cable nets struggle with cash flow declines due to cord cutting, pandemic


'Incredibles 2' eyes record opening to shake Disney out of 'Solo' slump

Walt Disney Co. hopes to make a sweeping return to form after a rough landing from iconic space pilot Han Solo.

SNL Image
"Incredibles 2"
Source: Disney

While "Solo: A Star Wars Story" represented an uncharacteristic misstep for Disney, the company's various labels have been far from disappointing throughout the year, and the Pixar-labeled "Incredibles 2" should add generously to the studio's coffers. Forecasters have the film gunning for an animated opening record — laurels the same studio holds for another iconic sequel, "Finding Dory," which opened to $135.1 million in 2016.

BoxOffice.com goes way over that with an incredible $152 million weekend forecast. Deadline Hollywood gives good odds with a range of $135 million to $150 million, while Variety tightens those odds with a forecast range of $125 million to $140 million.

The studio had yet to release a production budget for the film, but comparing it to prior Pixar sequels, "Incredibles 2" may lean heavily on a big box office run. The original 2004 "Incredibles" cost just $92.0 million in production, and "Finding Nemo" cost just $94 million in 2003. "Finding Dory," meanwhile, cost a whopping $202.3 million, according to data from Kagan, a media research group inside S&P Global Market Intelligence. Sequels in the Cars, Monsters and Toy Story franchises went over $175 million also.

But the big production budget should not hold "Incredibles 2" back from substantial profitability. A list of five Pixar comparisons compiled by Kagan saw an average opening of $90.4 million against an average production budget of $175.3 million, and those had an average net profit of $616.3 million, with a 51.8% profit margin.

"Incredibles 2" also shares the hype enjoyed by "Finding Dory." The debut title was running at a 93% "Certified Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 9 a.m. ET on June 15, very similar to the critical result "Finding Dory" landed at ultimately.

"Incredibles 2" will follow record-setting runs for other 2018 Disney flicks like "Black Panther" and "Avengers: Infinity War." However, while the company's studios are used to $1 billion-plus runs for its biggest franchises, "Solo" is still limping through the box office, with BoxOffice.com predicting a meager $193.7 million domestic run after its fourth weekend. Globally, Variety notes that it will struggle to cross $400 million before exiting theaters.

Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc., meanwhile, will debut "Tag," a comedy based on the true story of a multidecade game of tag. The film will open to $13 million, the third-highest earner at the box office behind Warner Bros.' other film "Ocean's 8," according to BoxOffice.com's prediction. Deadline and Variety agree on an opening weekend forecast between $12 million and $16 million.

The $28 million production compares well to a Kagan list of other bromance comedies like "The Hangover" and "Neighbors." Warner Bros. will look to avoid the fate of "Vacation," however, which opened to $14.7 million against a $31.5 million budget. That 2015 title left theaters on a $12.9 million loss. Both "Vacation" and "Tag" star Ed Helms. While "Tag" has not been overly praised by critics, it was still well outperforming "Vacation," which settled at a decidedly "rotten" 26% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. "Tag" was running at a 61% rating, as of 9 a.m. ET on June 15.

Lastly, "Superfly," the reboot of the 1972 film, is set to open wide in a range of $7 million to $15 million, according to forecasters. The title was running a 54% "rotten" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 9:00 a.m. ET on June 15. Kagan film comparisons for "Superfly" were not available as of publication time.

SNL Image