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April natural gas settles near unchanged ahead of weekend

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April natural gas settles near unchanged ahead of weekend

Caught by lingering cold ahead of a warmup into spring, April natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange was little changed on the session Friday, March 16, ending 0.7 cent higher at $2.688/MMBtu.

Midrange weather outlooks limited losses as cold weather is expected to engulf the majority of the country through March 29.

For the six- to 10-day period, below-average temperatures will span the eastern quarter of the country while the central U.S. will see a mix of below-average, average and above-average temperatures. The West will see a similar mix with the colder air to the north and warmer conditions in the south.

Below-average temperatures are expected to grip the northern two-thirds of the country in the eight- to 14-day period, while the southern tier will see a mix of average and above-average temperatures.

Longer-range outlooks for warming kept the market tethered to the downside even as the current and midrange cold should keep natural gas inventories receding before the warming turns weekly withdrawals to injections.

In forecasts updated March 15, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is projecting warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the country from April through June, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and the north-central U.S., which should see equal chances of below-average, normal or above-average temperatures through the period.

Natural gas inventories fell 93 Bcf in the week to March 9, a step above the 57-Bcf pull reported the previous week and above the 55-Bcf year-ago withdrawal but below both the full range of estimates ahead of the report's March 15 release and the 97-Bcf five-year average.

With colder weather seen in many parts of the Lower 48, total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose 5% in the week to March 14 compared with the previous report week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The stronger demand is feeding outlooks for a mid-90s Bcf withdrawal from stocks for the week to March 16 that will compare with a 137-Bcf pull reported for the corresponding week in 2017 and the 53-Bcf five-year average draw.

If net withdrawals from working gas stocks match the five-year average for the remainder of the withdrawal season, working gas stocks will total 1,406 Bcf by March 31, the traditional end of the season. That would be 17% lower than the five-year average.

Working gas stocks ended the 2013-2014 heating season at 837 Bcf, which is the lowest reported level for that time since 2010.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power, natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.