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AM Power Report: Dailies could meander with load prospects

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Day-ahead power prices could vary Wednesday, May 23, in line with choppy demand projections for Thursday.

In terms of natural gas, surging almost 10 cents on May 22 to close at the highest level since January, NYMEX June natural gas futures were taking a breather early Wednesday. Near 6:55 a.m. ET, the contract was up 0.4 cent to $2.912/MMBtu.

Load outlooks for the latter part of the workweek are aimed in diverging directions.

In the Northeast, demand in New England is expected to see highs at 15,140 MW on Wednesday and 14,000 MW on Thursday, and load in New York is called to reach 18,983 MW on Wednesday and 18,883 MW on Thursday. In the mid-Atlantic, PJM Western region demand could crest at 54,175 MW on Wednesday and 57,217 MW on Thursday, and PJM Mid-Atlantic load could hit highs at 38,149 MW on Wednesday and 36,814 MW on Thursday.

In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region could peak at 16,974 MW on Wednesday and 17,754 MW in the latter part of the business week, and load in PJM ComEd could reach highs at 12,688 MW on Wednesday and 13,331 MW on Thursday.

In the South, Texas load should near 58,366 MW on Wednesday and 61,228 MW on Thursday. In the West, California demand will likely top out at 28,217 MW on Wednesday and 27,433 MW on Thursday.

In forward action, the price of power for June delivery was steady to higher May 22, as rising front-month natural gas futures implied elevated fueling costs.

In the East, prompt-month power was valued in the high $20s to the mid-$30s in deals up 50 cents in New England and almost 60 cents stronger at PJM West. Along the forward curve, July power was marked in the high $30s at both hubs.

In the Midwest, near 80-cent gains steered June power to the high $30s at PJM AD, the low $30s at PJM Northern Illinois and the mid-$30s at MISO Indiana. Power parcels for July were quoted in the high $30s to the low $40s overall.

In the South, ERCOT North saw month-ahead power pricing jump about $12 to the high $70s to the low $80s, as hub activity for July power ran through the low $140s.

In the West, June power was unchanged in the high $10s at Mid-Columbia, while a similar offering assessed in the high $30s notched a roughly $2 increase at Palo Verde and an approximately $3 gain at South Path-15. Power for July delivery was reported in the low $30s at Mid-Columbia and the low $50s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.