New Jersey solar renewable energy credit prices advanced during the week ended Dec. 1. Garden State energy year 2018 SRECs came in at $206.25/MWh, while energy year 2019 SRECs were priced at $203.75/MWh, rising $3.75 and more than $2.25, respectively, from averages seen during the week ended Nov. 22.
Over the last six months, through September, the pace of new solar capacity build in New Jersey has declined to about 22.7 MW per month.
"That is approximately a 23.7% decrease against the last 12 month (LTM) rate of 29.8 MW/month. Additionally, the 3 months ending September 2017 saw a 45.5% decline in total build to 48.1 MW for the quarter, against 88.2 MW for the 3 months ending June 2017," according to a recent report from analysts with SRECTrade.
"Electricity load served for reporting year 2017, ending May 2017, is estimated to be up 1.3% over RY2016 to 75.2 million megawatt hours. This is a shift in the flat to declining trend the market has experienced since reporting year 2012. Given current build and scenarios based off the 29.8 MW/month LTM rate, the NJ SREC market can expect an oversupply of approximately 500,000 SRECs during reporting year 2018 (approximately 20-25% over the estimated RY2018 requirement)."
Since September, New Jersey energy year 2018 and 2019 SREC prices have generally accelerated in value.
"Price increases for the current vintages could be attributed to slightly lower than expected build rates and annual activity taking place ahead of the basic generation service (BGS) electricity auction, scheduled in early February 2018," SRECTrade wrote.
The BGS auction is held every year in early February in New Jersey, allowing its four electric distribution companies to procure electricity supply to serve basic generation service customers for three years.
"Looking forward, price appreciation could be due to early BGS activity, but also potentially attributed to the possibility of increased RPS requirements, particularly in light of the recent election of NJ Governor Phil Murphy and his stance on clean energy initiatives," the SRECTrade note added.
Murphy, a Democrat, will begin serving Jan. 16, 2018, for a term extending to January 2022. During his campaign, Murphy stated that within the first 100 days following his inauguration, he would begin the process of drafting a new Energy Master Plan that would include a standard requiring 100% of energy consumed in the state to be generated from renewable resources by 2050.
New Jersey's 2011 Energy Master Plan stated that "clean energy" is to account for 50% of resource needs by 2050, and a recently released 2015 update to the plan apparently maintains that target.
Prices for class I RECs in New Jersey increased during the period under review. Garden State vintage 2018 class I RECs were priced at $4.97/MWh, up 6 cents from assessments Nov. 22.

Cross-State Air Pollution Rule NOx annual, seasonal emissions slide
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, or CSAPR, emissions allowance price indications were firm to lower during the week ended Dec. 1.

Seasonal nitrogen oxide, or NOx, allowances for 2017 were pegged in a bid-and-offer spread of $140 to $200, easing from a prior assessment of $160 to $225 during the week ended Nov. 17. CSAPR seasonal NOx allowances for 2018 were talked in a bid-and-ask range of $115 to $190, easing from a level of $125 to $200 as of Nov. 17.

In May, CSAPR 2017 seasonal NOx prices rallied above $700 after buyers began to hedge ozone season emissions ahead of the peak summer cooling season. An overall mild summer in many regions of the country, particularly the Northeast, led to tepid interest, which offered pressure to seasonal NOx allowance prices in September and part of October.
CSAPR 2017 annual NOx allowances indications eased slightly during the week under review, with bids dropping to $1 from $1.50 previously and offers holding at $3.

CSAPR 2017 Group 1 sulfur dioxide, or SO2, allowances were unchanged during the week ended Dec. 1, marked in a bid-and-ask range of 25 cents to $4. Group 2 SO2 allowances for 2017 were also steady on the weekly period in a bid-and-offer spread of 25 cents to $5.

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