Editor's Note:
After edging 0.6 cent higher to close at $2.914/MMBtu in the prior session, NYMEX June natural gas futures retained an upside bias overnight ahead of the Thursday, May 24, open, in positioning leading up to the midmorning release of the weekly storage data that is poised to show a slowdown in the pace of inventory rebuilding. At 6:55 a.m. ET, the contract was 1.1 cents higher at $2.925/MMBtu.
Warmer weather that ramped up cooling demand is expected to have limited the amount of natural gas available to be moved into underground storage facilities in the forthcoming storage report due out from the U.S. Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
Estimates for the upcoming inventory data that will cover the week ended May 18 call for a build to stocks of anywhere from 84 Bcf to 95 Bcf, with consensus formed at a 90-Bcf injection. That would compare with a 74-Bcf prior-year addition and the 89-Bcf five-year average build.
Degree-day data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the week to May 19 show that cooling degree days were 26.5% fewer than in the previous year but 19.0% more than normal.
The previous storage report week ended May 11 saw a 106-Bcf injection to storage, marking the season's first triple-digit addition. That took total working gas stocks to 1,538 Bcf, or 821 Bcf below the year-ago level and 501 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,039 Bcf.
Midrange National Weather Service projections for both the six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day periods continue to show above-average temperatures engulfing nearly the entire country, which should keep cooling load elevated in the coming weeks.
Weather-related demand support could further impact the rate of storage building and impede the market's ability to rebuild the working gas stocks to a healthy level by the end of injection season.
Natural gas inventories would need to build by an average 12 Bcf/d to reach an end-of-season inventory topping 3.5 Tcf, according to the American Gas Association.
Day-ahead natural gas values predominantly rose Wednesday.
Among the key delivery locations, benchmark Henry Hub next-day gas prices led the uptrend with a 13-cent gain on average at an index at $2.890/MMBtu. Chicago spot gas price action followed with an almost 6-cent increase in trades averaging at $2.737/MMBtu, then PG&E Gate hub activity that tacked on nearly 4 cents on the day to average at $3.030/MMBtu and Transco Zone 6 NY cash gas pricing that advanced by about 3 cents to an index at $2.872/MMBtu.

On a regional basis, Gulf Coast day-ahead gas price activity added approximately 8 cents on the session to average at $2.839/MMBtu, while Midwest next-day gas pricing was lifted by 7 cents to an index at $2.597/MMBtu. West Coast and Northeast spot gas prices climbed by nearly 12 cents on average to indexes at $1.883/MMBtu and $2.473/MMBtu, respectively.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.
