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EIA forecast stays steady for US generation mix and power supplies

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EIA forecast stays steady for US generation mix and power supplies

In its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook," the U.S. Energy Information Administration's projections of the U.S. generation fuel mix for 2019 and 2020 are largely the same as those in its September report.

The EIA said natural gas-fired power plants will supply 37% of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation in 2019 and 2020, after rising from a 34% share in 2018. It also expects coal-fired generation's share will average 25% in 2019 and 22% in 2020, after falling from 28% in 2018.

In addition, the EIA foresees nuclear's share of the U.S. generation mix remaining at about 20% in 2019 and 2020, while the share of U.S. generation supplied by wind, solar and other nonhydropower renewables is expected to be more than 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2020, up from almost 10% in 2018. Hydropower will average a 7% share for 2019 and 2020, similar to as it was for 2018, the EIA said.

"Notably, the nation's two most-populous states are leading in electricity generation from renewables," said EIA Administrator Linda Capuano in a press release.

According to the outlook, Texas will account for 19% of nonhydropower renewable generation in the U.S. in 2019 and 22% in 2020, followed by California at 15% for 2019 and 14% for 2020. Nonhydropower renewable generation shares in the Midwest and Central regions are expected to range from 16% to 17% in 2019 and 2020. In total, the EIA expects nonhydropower renewable generation, largely wind and solar, to grow from supplying 414 billion kWh of electricity in 2019 to 471 billion kWh in 2020.

"As the power sector uses less carbon-intensive fuels like natural gas and renewables, EIA's forecast of U.S. energy-related carbon emissions decrease in both 2019 and 2020," Capuano said.

After U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose by 2.7% in 2018, the EIA said those emissions will decline by 2.4% in 2019 and by 1.7% by 2020, due again in part to lower forecast energy consumption levels. The EIA said that power consumption will be lower in 2019 because of lower demand for space cooling as a result of a forecast 6% decline in cooling degree days from 2018 when it was significantly higher than the previous 10-year average.

In a slight decline from forecasts from its September outlook, the EIA now expects retail electricity prices for commercial customers to fall from 10.66 cents/kWh in 2018 to 10.62 cents/kWh in 2019 and in 2020. It expects prices for industrial customers to decline from 6.93 cents/kWh in 2018 to 6.80 cents/kWh in 2019 before rising back to 6.84 cents/kWh in 2020.

However, the EIA predicted that retail electricity prices for residential consumers will increase from an average of 12.89 cents/kWh in 2018 to 13.00 cents/kWh in 2019 and then 13.12 cents/kWh in 2020.

Alongside the monthly outlook, the EIA released its "Winter Fuels Outlook" for 2019-2020, which forecasts average household expenditures for all major home heating fuels will decrease this 2019-2020 winter compared with the previous winter.

The outlook said that the forecast largely reflects warmer expected winter temperatures as compared with last winter. "Decreases vary by fuel and region, with average U.S. propane expenditures forecast to fall by 15%, home heating oil expenditures by 4%, natural gas expenditures by 1%, and electricity expenditures by 1%," the EIA said.