Over-the-counter prices for renewable energy credits continued their choppy moves during the week ended Jan. 17.
Following recent gains and amid a plethora of supply in New Jersey, energy year 2019 solar RECs in the Garden State eased, posting an average at $228.17/MWh, down 33 cents on the week.
New Jersey class I REC markets edged higher during the second week of January. New Jersey vintage 2019 class I RECs tacked on 4 cents from the week before to end at an index of $6.29/MWh.
To the north, the Massachusetts SREC-I markets were varied heading into the second half of January. Massachusetts 2018 SREC-Is fell $1.25 on the week to an average at $406.33/MWh.
Looking at data from the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources as well as expected fourth-quarter 2018 production figures, the Massachusetts 2018 SREC I market could be undersupplied by approximately 91,000 SRECs, or 10.9%, of the exempt load adjusted obligation, which should be supportive for prices, according to a Jan. 15 report from SRECTrade.
"Currently, SRECTrade projects the 2019 SREC-I market will have a similar dynamic of undersupply, with a shortage of approximately 46,000 SRECs, or 5.8%, of the estimated exempt load adjusted obligation," SRECTrade said.
The 2019 SREC I market in Massachusetts saw an average at $376.67/MWh, gaining 92 cents from the week prior.
The 2018 SREC-II market is likely to see a shortfall of approximately 145,500 SRECs, or 8.3%, of the exempt load adjusted obligation. Over-the-counter data showed the Massachusetts 2018 SREC-II market at an index of $332.17/MWh, falling $1.83 from the week prior.
Analysts expect that the 2019 SREC-II market will be more balanced with a slight oversupply of 7,600 SRECs, or 0.4%, of the exempt load adjusted obligation. Massachusetts 2019 SREC-IIs were priced at $296.75/MWh during the review period, rising $1.75 week over week.
