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ABC could return to NFL's TV roster, Wall Street analyst says

At least one Wall Street analyst believes the pro football league will sport a revamped network roster and game packages when it concludes its next round of rights negotiations.

Marci Ryvicker, a media analyst at Wolfe Research, said at a Sept. 12 industry event that she expects changes on both the broadcast side, as well as with the NFL SUNDAY TICKET, the league’s out-of-home package.

Ryvicker said that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell wants as much reach as possible. That could open the door to ABC (US), the original home of "Monday Night Football," rejoining the league's TV lineup.

Ryvicker said that if ABC is on the roster, it would also likely mean lower rights for ESPN (US). The sports cable network pays the most of the NFL's carriers, allocating $1.9 billion annually for "MNF," which is the lowest-rated of the packages, including FOX (US)'s "Thursday Night Football" telecasts. As part of that outlay, The Walt Disney Co.-owned network also benefits from expanded highlights rights that fuel its studio shows and league-oriented shoulder programming across its suite of services.

With the NFL looking for the broadest reach, Ryvicker does not expect any of the big tech companies to score an exclusive rights deal during the next round of negotiations, which she believes will occur for all packages sometime late next year, provided the league reaches a new collective bargaining agreement with the players.

However, Ryvicker thinks Amazon.com Inc. could garner some NFL SUNDAY TICKET rights from AT&T Inc.'s DIRECTV, the current holder. She cited remarks made by AT&T Chairman and CEO Randall Stephenson on the company’s recent earnings call that the out-of-market game package, which once was a major subscription driver for the satellite service, now serves more as a retention tool. Ryvicker also noted that AT&T wants to pare down its debt load, following its purchase of DIRECTV and more recently Time Warner Inc. DIRECTV currently allocates $1.5 billion annually for NFL SUNDAY TICKET rights.

As such, AT&T might punt on exclusivity, which Ryvicker thinks might attract Amazon. The tech giant is about to start streaming its third season of "TNF" on Sept. 26, and presents U.S. Open tennis and Premier League soccer action abroad. Amazon also recently secured a 15% stake in the YES Network (US), the regional sports network home to Major League Baseball's New York Yankees and the National Basketball Association's Brooklyn Nets.

When all is said and done, Ryvicker estimates the NFL could realize up to a 60% gain in rights over its current contract levels, with the potential for varied ranges of increases for the different networks, some of which may wind up airing fewer contests.