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Natural gas to provide bulk of US electricity through 2018

The U.S. Energy Information Administration trimmed its U.S. coal demand outlook, as it expects natural gas to provide the lion's share of the nation's power through 2018.

In its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released Dec. 12, the agency projects U.S. electricity production will average 11.0 million MWh/d in 2017 before climbing 1.7% in 2018 to 11.2 million MWh/d.

According to the outlook, coal will provide 30.8% of U.S. power in 2017, down from the prior outlook of 31.0%, to natural gas' share of 31.5%, up from the prior outlook of 31.3%. In 2018, the EIA projects coal will provide 30.7% of the nation's electric power to natural gas' share of 32.3%. The prior projection had coal's 31.0% share behind natural gas' 32.3% share.

The federal agency predicts delivered coal prices will average $2.13/MMBtu and $2.20/MMBtu in 2017 and 2018, respectively, against delivered natural gas prices of $3.43/MMBtu and $3.62/MMBtu.

The agency trimmed its 2017 power-sector coal demand outlook by 0.9% versus the prior outlook to 675 million tons, while it cut its 2018 forecast by 1.4% to 682 million tons.

At the same time, the agency raised its 2017 domestic coal production outlook by 0.6% versus the prior forecast to 790 million tons and kept its 2018 outlook flat at 788 million tons.

The federal agency raised its 2017 year-end power-sector stockpile forecast by 0.1% versus the prior forecast to 152.5 million tons, while it boosted its 2018 year-end stockpile outlook 1.7% to 153.9 million tons.

The EIA expects 2017 U.S. coal exports to reach 82.4 million tons, up 10.2% versus the prior projection, while it raised its 2018 export forecast 12.9% to 72.7 million tons.