Ireland remains central to the evolving debate around Brexit.
The main sticking point — at least for the administration of Prime Minister Boris Johnson — is the question of a customs border on the island of Ireland. The plan agreed to between the EU and the government of former Prime Minister Theresa May was to have a backstop position indefinitely where Northern Ireland remains part of the EU from a customs perspective. That, the current U.K. government argues, will limit its ability to sign new trade deals after Brexit.
The latest proposal, tabled by her successor Boris Johnson, involves the creation of "customs clearance zones" across Ireland and Northern Ireland to obviate the need for a hard border, or the creation of a "two borders" system that would maintain regulatory alignment under the purview of the Northern Ireland Assembly.
If a new Withdrawal Agreement for the U.K. to leave the EU is not agreed by Oct. 17 then the British government is required — by law — to request an extension to the Brexit deadline to Dec. 31. If it is accepted by all EU members, which is by no means guaranteed, then there's likely to be a new round of elections in the U.K. followed by further negotiations to reach a final Withdrawal Agreement.
Both the customs clearance zones and the two borders system are theoretical constructs at this stage, and the Irish government has already stated that the customs zones are a non-starter.
Yet despite the centrality of the Irish border question and ahead of Brexit, there has already been a decline in Irish exports to the U.K., with a 1.0% slip in 2018 versus 2017, Panjiva's analysis of Eurostat data shows.

That's largely been down to weaker pharmaceutical shipments which have slumped by 23.1%, offset only partly by better shipments in agriculture with a 4.9% rise in meat and a 4.3% increase in dairy. There was also an improvement in shipments of capital equipment including electrical equipment which rose 12.0% and machinery, up by a more modest 2.2%. The fastest-growing sector was energy with a 39.4% rise in refined oil shipments and a 159% surge in electricity supplies — the latter of which shouldn't be affected directly by customs issues.
