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'Solo' finds itself 'Adrift' as its box office expectations dive deeper

"Solo: A Star Wars Story" may lead at the U.S. box office over the June 1 weekend, but it is tracking to be one of the worst-performing films in the sci-fi franchise since Walt Disney Co. acquired the Lucasfilm label in 2012.

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"Adrift"
Source: STX Entertainment

The latest addition to the "Star Wars" series, featuring a young Han Solo, collected $103 million over its May 25 opening weekend. While that result might indicate blockbuster territory for other films, it was about 30% off the low end of forecasts for "Solo." Given the December 2017 release of "Star Wars: The Last Jedi," some film analysts are pointing to possible sequel fatigue as well as overall high standards for "Star Wars" movies as driving the underperformance of "Solo."

Heading into the film's second weekend, BoxOffice.com is predicting a 67% drop in ticket sales, down to $28 million. While that would be a disappointing result for Disney's big franchise, it still puts "Solo" above projections for the June 1 weekend's slate of new wide releases. "Adrift" is expected to lead among the debut films. Loosely based on the true story of a couple set adrift in the Pacific after a hurricane wrecks their sailboat, the STX Entertainment flick is generating opening expectations as low as $7 million. Variety projects "Adrift" will pull in $7 million to $11 million over the weekend. BoxOffice.com is a little more bullish, offering a $12 million forecast. Deadline Hollywood offers an estimate "in the teens."

The middle-budget "Adrift," produced at $35 million, had a 65% "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 10 a.m. ET, on June 1, slightly below the average for "Solo," which was settling at a 71% "fresh" rating.

Comparisons for "Adrift" compiled by Kagan, a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence, put it alongside other aquatic adventure films like "The Perfect Storm," "Open Water" and "White Squall." The performance of those titles proved mixed, with "Open Water" exiting theaters on a 21.9% margin and "The Finest Hours" sinking deep into the red by a loss margin of 186.8%. The five comparisons saw an average opening of $17.8 million against an average budget of $77.8 million, leading to an average loss margin of 9.4%.

The other two wide releases over the weekend, "Action Point" and "Upgrade," are generally forecast to register ticket sales in the seven-figure range, though Variety and Deadline project "Action Point" has a chance at $10 million. BoxOffice.com, on the low end, projects the Johnny Knoxville film, in the spirit of reality prank comedy "Jackass," could open as low as $5.2 million. The title should earn more than its $19 million budget over its theatrical run if it can harness the appeal of the Jackass franchise, which generated solid profits for Paramount Pictures over its past several releases. The worst performing title in the "Action Point" comparisons compiled by Kagan, "The Ringer," opened to $5.2 million against a $20 million budget, but the film still managed to exit in the black by $3.0 million and a 3.3% margin.

"Action Point" had yet to be rated on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 10 a.m. ET on June 1.

"Upgrade" is expected to take up the rear at the June 1 weekend box office among debut films, with forecasts calling for it to open at about $3 million. The sci-fi horror-thriller lands beside fast-paced flicks like "Lucy," "John Wick" and "Crank" in Kagan's comparisons. The worst performing in the group, "Death Sentence," opened to $4.2 million against a $28 million budget, and left the box office with a 137.2% loss margin. On the upside for the new film, "Upgrade" got critics' blood pumping with an 86% "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 10 a.m. ET on June 1.

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For custom film data pulls with dozens of data points available, please contact Derek Baine (Derek.Baine@spglobal.com).