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ERCOT predicts it will have enough power to meet fall 2019 demand

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ERCOT predicts it will have enough power to meet fall 2019 demand

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas predicts there will be enough installed generation capacity to meet peak electricity demand in the upcoming fall and winter.

The grid operator's Sept. 9 release of its annual seasonal assessment of resource adequacy for the fall months comes as ERCOT has struggled to meet demand during a scorching summer, during which it was forced to issue two energy emergency alerts calling for consumer conservation. The shortages caused real-time energy prices to spike to the $9,000/MWh cap as it set all-time demand records. ERCOT has been operating with an 8.6% reserve margin, the difference between forecast peak demand and total generation capacity, during the summer, well below its 13.75% target reserve margin.

ERCOT said that based on expected peak demand of 61,034 MW and total resources of 83,984 MW, it would have reserve capacity of 22,950 MW. Under a typical resource outage scenario, the grid operator would have 9,117 MW available for operating reserves. Emergency measures are activated when reserve capacity dips below 2,300 MW.

"Prior to each season, we study a range of scenarios to determine whether extreme temperatures and season-specific resource availability risks will have an impact on our ability to meet the forecasted peak demand and maintain sufficient operating reserves," ERCOT Manager of Resource Adequacy Pete Warnken said in a news release. "Our studies show we have sufficient generation for the fall season."

ERCOT's fall season includes October and November. Nearly 1,200 MW of planned capacity is expected, including 296 MW of gas-fired generation, 732 MW of wind and 170 MW of solar expected to come online.

ERCOT said 13,833 MW of capacity is at risk for outages during the fall, including 10,158 MW in typical maintenance outages and 3,675 MW in typical forced outages. ERCOT said this forecast is based on the historical average of outages for weekday peak hours during the last three fall seasons.

Further, a preliminary winter assessment predicts there will be slightly higher demand during the winter, 62,257 MW, than during the fall. ERCOT's preliminary seasonal assessment of resource adequacy covering December 2019 through February 2020 said there will be 1,179 MW of additional capacity available during the winter as planned projects go online. Maintenance outages tend to be lower in the winter as compared to fall.

The all-time winter peak demand record was set Jan. 17, 2018, when consumers used 65,915 MW between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. when temperatures were unusually low, ERCOT noted in its news release.