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EIA forecasts US generation to fall 2.1% in 2019

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EIA forecasts US generation to fall 2.1% in 2019

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects electricity production in the U.S. will increase from an average of 11.05 million MWh/d in 2017 to 11.47 million MWh/d in 2018, before falling 2.1% in 2019 to 11.23 million MWh/d. That production forecast drop is steeper than the 1.7% decline forecast for 2019 in the October report.

The federal agency, in its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released Nov. 6, said natural gas-fired generation is expected to increase its share of the country's utility-scale electricity mix from 32% in 2017 to 35% in 2018 and then to 36% in 2019. Coal-fired generation is expected to average 28% in 2018 and 26% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. Nuclear power's share will average about 19% in 2018 and in 2019, down from 20% in 2017.

The EIA expects wind, solar and other nonhydropower renewables to provide more than 10% of the generation mix in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019, in comparison to slightly less than 10% in 2017.

"Solar electricity generation remains the fastest-growing renewable energy source," EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in an accompanying statement. "The data suggest that the solar industry is increasing its use of solar [photovoltaic] tracking systems because revenues from the tracking systems more than offset their increased costs, when compared to fixed-tilt panels."

Hydropower's generation share in 2017 was 7%, and the EIA forecasts that the figure will remain about the same through 2019.

As for consumption, the EIA said it expects that total retail sales in 2018 will climb 240,000 MWh/d to average 10.44 million MWh/d, slightly higher than forecasts posted the month before, before declining in 2019 to average 10.31 million MWh/d.

Of the total retail sales in 2018, 38.40% will go to residential customers, 36.11% to commercial customers and 25.19% to industrial customers. In 2019, the agency anticipates sales to residential, commercial and industrial customers will account for 37.73%, 36.27% and 25.70% of U.S. retail sales, respectively.

Regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. will rise by 2.5% in 2018, after declining by 0.8% in 2017. The EIA largely attributes the increase to higher natural gas consumption, caused by a colder winter and a warmer summer in 2018 than in 2017. However, the EIA expects emissions to decline by 1.3% in 2019 because temperatures are forecast to return to more normal levels.