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Power markets kick off fresh workweek biased higher

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Power markets kick off fresh workweek biased higher

Despite mostly lower load outlooks and little support from mixed spot gas prices, daily power markets across the U.S. leaned flat to higher Monday, Nov. 27.

After posting losses Nov. 24, the front-month December contract rebounded Monday and closed the session with an 11.5-cent gain at $2.928/MMBtu with options expiring as well. On the other hand, spot gas markets diverged, which gave power trading hubs little to no support.

Following the loss of Vistra Energy Corp.'s Comanche Peak 2 in Texas, total U.S. nuclear plant availability slipped to 92.29% early Nov. 27.

Sluggish fundamentals fail to pull down East dailies

Lower load forecasts and a decline in regional spot gas prices could not prevent power markets in the East from rising Monday.

At next-day markets, power packages at the New England Mass hub and PJM West hub were up $3 on the session and were quoted in the low $30s at the former and the high $20s at the latter.

Day-ahead markets also moved higher, with deals at the Mass hub, New York Zone A, New York Zone G and New York Zone J rising by $2 to $4 to averages of $34.01, $24.74, $30.56 and $32.98, respectively.

Lower load may be in store for the region as the workweek unfolds. Demand in New England may crest at 16,840 MW on Monday and 16,700 MW on Tuesday, while load in New York should top out at 19,978 MW on Monday and 19,585 MW on Tuesday. Demand in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region could run up to 34,241 MW on Monday and 33,974 MW on Tuesday, while load in the PJM Western region might hit peaks of 51,907 MW on Monday and 50,047 MW on Tuesday.

West markets biased higher with demand, gas boost

Robust load forecasts and a rise in regional spot gas prices boosted most power markets in the West on Monday.

In California, power deals at South Path-15 rose more than $7 and changed hands in the mid- to high $40s. Flat to higher moves were noted in the Northwest, with Mid-Columbia deals seeing little change on the session and spanning the low to mid-$20s while power at the California-Oregon Border hub was traded almost $2 higher in the high $20s to low $30s. In the Southwest, Palo Verde packages added about a dollar and were exchanged in the mid-$20s while Mead trades eased slightly in the high $20s.

The California ISO is calling for highs of 29,105 MW on Monday and 29,134 MW on Tuesday.

Texas deals tumble despite load support

Day-ahead markets in Texas fell Monday as prices at most locations ignored outlooks for higher Tuesday demand and some support from mixed spot gas prices.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is projecting peaks of 39,112 MW on Monday and 39,776 MW on Tuesday.

However, regional day-ahead deals tumbled despite load support. Deals at ERCOT North, ERCOT South and ERCOT West fell by $1 to $5 and noted averages of $20.16, $21.64 and $16.82, respectively, while ERCOT Houston trades eased slightly and averaged $22.34.

Midwest markets begin workweek unsupported

Power markets in the Midwest saw support Monday from deflated load forecasts and falling spot gas prices.

Demand in the Midwest is expected to fall, with load in the PJM AEP region possibly peaking at 17,650 MW on Monday and 16,222 MW on Tuesday while demand in the PJM ComEd region should near highs of 12,025 MW on Monday and 11,948 MW on Tuesday.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.