Day-ahead power markets could start the new workweek on a mixed tenor Monday, March 5, on the back of varied demand projections for Tuesday.
Traders will also keep watch of natural gas. Ending virtually unchanged in the prior trading day, NYMEX April natural gas futures were slightly lower early Monday ahead of the opening bell. The front-month gas futures contract was trading down 1.3 cents to $2.682/MMBtu at 6:50 a.m. ET on light profit taking.
Absent any regional weather-side support, most spot natural gas prices at the major consuming hubs could decline in many cases, alongside sustained losses in futures.
In terms of demand, outlooks indicate diverging load as the fresh workweek unfolds.
In the Northeast, demand in New England is expected to top out at 16,600 MW on Monday and 16,340 MW on Tuesday, while New York load could unwind as it is projected to hit highs at 19,761 MW on Monday and 19,492 MW on Tuesday. To the south, PJM Western region demand is poised to decline as it is called to crest at 55,019 MW on Monday and 53,799 MW on Tuesday, while load in PJM Mid-Atlantic is set to rise to see highs at 36,642 MW on Monday and 37,306 MW on Tuesday.
In the Midwest, demand in PJM AEP region could slump as it is forecast to touch a high near 17,874 MW at the start of the fresh workweek and 17,438 MW on Tuesday, while PJM ComEd load could hold near steady at peaks at 12,155 MW on Monday and 12,175 MW on Tuesday.
In the South, load in Texas could join the downtrend as it is called to reach 40,517 MW on Monday and 38,431 MW on Tuesday. In the West, demand in California should near 28,000 MW on Monday and 27,280 MW on Tuesday.
Along the forward curve, April power pricing was mixed with a dominant upside bias ahead of the weekend on the back of lingering cold in midrange forecasts that could support demand in the weeks ahead.
In the East, front-month power was quoted in the low to mid-$30s in trades off about 10 cents in New England but 60 cents higher day on day at PJM West. May power was valued in the low $30s at both hubs.
In the Midwest, 35-cent gains steered April power to the low $30s at PJM AD and the high $20s at PJM Northern Illinois, as a nearly 50-cent decline took MISO Indiana April to the mid-$30s. Along the forward curve, power for May delivery was marked in the high $20s to the mid-$30s overall.
In the South, the ERCOT markets saw transactions for month-ahead power lifted by roughly 80 cents to the high $20s to the low $30s, a range shared with regional trading action for May power.
In the West, North Path-15 April climbed by about 20 cents to the high $20s but South Path-15 April fell by roughly 30 cents against the dominant advance to the low $20s. April power slipped by almost 20 cents to the low and mid-$10s at Mid-Columbia and deflated by 30 cents to the low $20s at Palo Verde. May power was assessed in the low $10s at Mid-Columbia and in the low $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.


Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.
