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Eastern US power values swing lower; Midwest, West dailies notch gains

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Eastern US power values swing lower; Midwest, West dailies notch gains

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Most next-day power markets in the U.S. favored gains Monday, May 21, despite mixed demand forecasts.

At the natural gas futures arena, the front-month June contract closed the session with a 3.7-cent loss at $2.810/MMBtu.

In other supply, total U.S. nuclear plant availability rose to 92.60% early May 21.

East dailies start workweek pressured by demand

Markets in the East moved flat to lower Monday as traders took into consideration outlooks for slack Tuesday demand.

At next-day markets, power prices at PJM West slipped roughly $2 and ranged in the high $30s to low $40s while dailies at the New England Mass hub eased and spanned the mid-$20s.

On the other hand, day-ahead markets rebounded. DAMs at the Mass hub and New York Zone G added $3 to $7 on the session and averaged $25.49 and $29.46, respectively, while DAMs at New York Zone A and New York Zone J added more than $10 and averaged $30.49 and $32.16, respectively.

Demand is projected to fall in both the Northeast and mid-Atlantic as the new workweek unfolds. Load in New England may run up to 14,720 MW on Monday and 13,910 MW on Tuesday, while demand in New York should hit highs of 17,984 MW on Monday and 17,670 MW on Tuesday. Load in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region could crest at 35,167 MW on Monday and 34,731 MW on Tuesday, while demand in the PJM Western region should top out at 54,349 MW on Monday and 54,212 MW on Tuesday.

Western power markets gain ground with firm load forecasts

Firm Tuesday load forecasts supported power markets in the West on Monday.

The California ISO is projecting highs of 28,482 MW on Monday and 28,522 MW on Tuesday. Boosted by demand, on-peak power deals at South Path-15 added roughly $2 and spanned the mid-$20s.

In the Northwest, power value at Mid-Columbia rose by more than $5 and was quoted in the mid- to high teens, while deals at the California-Oregon Border hub gained around $2 with prices ranging in the low $20s.

In the Southwest, heavy-load deals at Palo Verde added less than $1 and were noted in the high teens to low $20s while Mead packages were valued in the low $20s, around a dollar higher on the session.

Midwest dailies rise despite mixed load

Power dailies in the Midwest edged higher Monday despite outlooks for varied Tuesday demand. MISO Indiana saw the bulk of Monday's action with prices pegged in the low $40s, rising more than $5.

Looking at load, demand in the PJM AEP region should peak at 17,510 MW on Monday and 17,859 MW on Tuesday, while load in the PJM ComEd region might near highs of 11,517 MW on Monday and 11,358 MW on Tuesday.

Texas day-ahead markets swing higher with demand support

Rising Tuesday load forecasts provided day-ahead markets in Texas with a lift Monday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is calling for peaks of 55,070 MW on Monday and 59,448 MW on Tuesday.

Supported by demand, day-ahead markets ticked higher. DAMs at ERCOT West added more than $5 and averaged $34.40 while DAMs at ERCOT North and ERCOT South gained $1 to $3 on the session and averaged $39.75 and $35.77, respectively. DAMs at ERCOT Houston saw little change on the session and averaged $36.20.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.