The U.S. oil and gas production boom has not made the Persian Gulf any less important to U.S. national security, former Secretary of State James Baker said Oct. 2.
Speaking at an energy conference at Rice University's Baker Institute, Baker made it clear that oil exports from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states remain critical to the economies of the U.S. and its allies around the world.
"The notion that increased U.S. oil production will permit us to walk away from the Middle East is really the stuff of fantasy," said Baker, who served as secretary of state under President George H.W. Bush from 1989 to 1992. "Preventing a supply disruption from the Persian Gulf remains a top American strategic priority."
In the event of a supply disruption from the Gulf, Baker said, the U.S. economy would still suffer adverse effects and a recession would not be out of the question. The former secretary of state also aimed pointed comments at the nation deemed most likely to cause a disruption: Iran.
"This attack [on the gas oil separation plant in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia], undoubtedly from Iran, was only the most recent threat to the flow of hydrocarbons from the Persian Gulf," Baker said, citing that nation's attacks on tankers in the Gulf and the shooting down of a U.S. drone in international waters as other steps that have increased tensions.
Baker was critical of both the Obama and Trump administrations for their handling of Iran's development of a nuclear program. He said the Obama administration had signed off on a "very flawed agreement" and no negotiations should have taken place without Iran formally swearing off support for terrorist groups; the Trump administration, Baker said, has weakened its position by failing to gain the support of European allies before pulling out of the agreement. Regardless, he said, the U.S. cannot ignore the attack on Abqaiq.
"In the short term, the U.S. must find a way to respond to the attack on the Saudi oil facilities," Baker said. "It is a clear threat to our national interests. It is really nothing more, or less, than international blackmail."
Baker said military action was not the only step the U.S. could take against Iran. Instead, he proposed expanding economic sanctions and cyberattacks against the country in retaliation for the Abqaiq attack. For those measures to be most effective, he said, the U.S. should not act alone.
"We should assemble a mutli-lateral coalition to support us. This coalition should include our Arab partners in the Persian Gulf, but it should also include to the extent possible, our allies in Europe and the Far East," Baker said.
