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'Tomb Raider' looks to topple the impervious 'Black Panther'

Walt Disney Co.'s "Black Panther" has fought plenty of foes, and through four weekends it has eviscerated them all. But the race is tight for the weekend of March 16, with debut film "Tomb Raider" swinging a challenge to Disney's dominance.

Yet "Black Panther" is still filling seats and could end up with a domestic gross of $606.5 million after the weekend if BoxOffice.com's $29 million weekend forecast is correct. In fact, that publication expects the holdover to best the debut film, giving "Tomb Raider" an opening forecast of $21.5 million. Deadline Hollywood also sees "Black Panther" coming out on top, giving it a $27 million projection and "Tomb Raider" a forecast range of $23 million to $25 million. Variety, on the other hand, puts the two neck and neck, with a $25 million expectation for both.

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"Tomb Raider"
Source: Warner Bros.

Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. will take a stab at the video game franchise this time around, following in the footsteps of Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures, which previously ran the intellectual property. In 2001, "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider," opened to a sturdy $47.7 million against an $80 million budget, and it exited with $133.8 million in net profit, according to Kagan data. Kagan is a media research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

With a $94 million budget, the new version of the film will have a wider margin to overcome at the outset, if forecasts are correct. It could look more like Paramount's 2003 sequel, "Lara Croft Tomb Raider: Cradle of Life," which opened to $21.8 million against a $95 million budget and exited with just $5.2 million in net profit. An average of five comparisons compiled by Kagan, including the two former Tomb Raider movies, saw an average opening of $24.0 million against an average production budget of $71.5 million, yielding an average net profit of $31.6 million.

The new release is getting a lukewarm reception from critics, landing on a 50% "rotten" rating as of 8:15 a.m. ET on March 16, but the franchise has never been a critical favorite. The first Paramount Tomb Raider film, for instance, ultimately settled at a "rotten" 20% rating.

Two other films will debut over the weekend, with coming-of-age tale "Love, Simon" expected to outperform faith-based title "I Can Only Imagine."

"Love, Simon," a low-budget adaptation of the novel "Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda," could be a low-range profit win for 21st Century Fox Inc.'s studio, but that is far from certain. BoxOffice.com projects a $14.3 million weekend. Variety is looking for a range of $10 million to $12 million. Deadline, however, is more bearish, with a flat $10 million forecast.

A production budget of $17 million puts the debut in uncertain territory. For example, similar film "Everything, Everything" opened to $11.7 million in 2017 against a $10.1 million budget, and after marketing and other costs landed in the red $8.7 million by the time it exited theaters. Another comparison, "Paper Towns," opened to $12.7 million against a $12.2 million budget and just edged out profitability of $3.5 million.

The film is a win with critics, however, running an 89% "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 8:15 a.m. ET on March 16.

Variety and Deadline expect "I Can Only Imagine," the story surrounding the contemporary Christian song of the same name, to fall in the $2 million to $4 million range over the weekend, but BoxOffice.com imagines a three-day forecast of $9 million on the film. Kagan's comparisons did not bode well for the movie, yielding an average opening of $5.2 million and an average net loss of $11.0 million. It had yet to be rated on Rotten Tomatoes as of 8:15 a.m. ET on March 16.

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For custom film data pulls with dozens of data points available, please contact Derek Baine (Derek.Baine@spglobal.com).