Power dailies could end the workweek biased higher Friday, Dec. 1, as forecasts for generally elevated demand coming off the weekend combine with renewed gains in natural gas futures trading.
At 7:20 a.m. ET, January 2018 was trading 9.0 cents higher at $3.115/MMBtu, recovering the 15.4 cents lost in the previous session.
On the demand side, most grid operators anticipate stronger load at the start of the next workweek on Dec. 4, as business-related demand typically rebounds coming off the weekend.
In the Northeast, demand in New England is expected to reach highs at 16,020 MW on Friday and 16,880 MW on Dec. 4, while load in New York is seen hitting highs at 19,466 MW on Friday and 19,989 MW on Dec. 4. In the Mid-Atlantic, the PJM grid operator sees PJM Western region demand bucking the wider uptrend to crest at 50,911 MW on Friday and 50,824 MW on Dec. 4, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load is called to reach 33,494 MW on Friday and 34,668 MW on Dec. 4.
In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region is forecast to peak at 16,426 MW on Friday and 16,595 MW on Dec. 4, while load in PJM ComEd is also poised to defy the broad uptick as it is projected to touch a high near 12,076 MW on Friday and 12,016 MW at the start of the next business week.
In the South, load in Texas could top out at 38,767 MW on Friday and 42,937 MW on Dec. 4.
In the West, demand in California could see highs at 29,152 MW on Friday and 27,990 MW on Dec. 2, but should find some upside support on Dec. 4 as full industrial and commercial load recovers at the start of the new business week.
In forward trade, January 2018 power had a weak showing across the board on Thursday, just ahead of its debut as the front-month offering, in tandem with January 2018 natural gas futures that tumbled on the session to ultimately signal cheaper fueling costs. Soon-to-be balance-of-month December power was mixed with an upside bias.
In the East, January 2018 power shed almost $2 in deals carried out atop $80 in New England and unraveled nearly 60 cents in transactions done at above $47 at PJM West. Power for December delivery was lifted by about $7 to an index at close to $65 in New England and bolstered by over $3 to an average at approximately $42 at PJM West.
In the Midwest, an almost $2 decline took PJM Northern Illinois January 2018 to an average at above $37, as roughly $3 losses steered PJM AD January 2018 and MISO Indiana January 2018 to indexes at around $40 and at about $37, respectively. Meanwhile, December power pricing was up almost 50 cents day on the day at an average above $38 at PJM AD and nearly $2 stronger at an index at more than $36 at PJM Northern Illinois, but off roughly $1 at an average at around $37 at MISO Indiana.
In the South, the ERCOT markets saw January 2018 power deflate by near 70 cents to as much as $1 to average at about $26 to $30. Regional trading action for December power delivery rose by around 40 cents on the day to indexes ranging roughly from $23 to $31.
In the West, California saw January 2018 power trades fall by more than $3 to indexes near $41 at North Path-15 and above $44 at South Path-15, as similar deals slid by more than $1 at Mid-Columbia and also recoiled by more than $3 at Palo Verde to average on either side of $29. December power eased by 10 cents to an index at roughly $48 at North Path-15 and retreated by approximately $2 to an average at $60 at South Path-15, but was almost flat at an index at above $32 at Mid-Columbia but off around $5 at an average at over $30 at Palo Verde.


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