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Global commission says climate change adaptation would reap big economic returns

Taking steps to adapt to the impacts of climate change such as extreme hurricanes and flooding can produce significant economic returns, according to a Sept. 10 report by the Global Commission on Adaptation.

The analysis found that investing $1.8 trillion globally in the following five areas from 2020 to 2030 could generate $7.1 trillion in total net benefits: early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture, protecting and restoring mangrove forests, and improving water resilience. Leaders of the commission include United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates.

But the investments can provide additional co-benefits, such as avoiding future losses, generating positive economic gains through innovation, and other social and economic benefits. For instance, the report said restoring coastal mangrove forests would provide more than $80 billion annually in avoided coastal flooding and protect 18 million people but also would improve local water quality and promote local fishing industries.

The report puts a particular emphasis on ensuring adaptation efforts include an environmental justice component. "Adaptation is an urgent issue that needs support from governments and businesses to ensure those most at risk have the opportunity to thrive," Gates said in a statement.

The report indicates that action to reduce global emissions under the Paris Agreement on climate change must occur concurrently with adaptation efforts. Without adaptation, climate change by 2050 may depress growth in global agriculture yields by as much as 30%, leaving more than 5 billion people annually without sufficient access to water, and force hundreds of millions of people to move from coastal cities at a cost of $1 trillion each year.

"Put another way, failing to secure these economic benefits through climate adaptation investments would undermine trillions of dollars in potential growth and prosperity," the report said. "The level of adaptation investment required is a very small share of projected total global investment," or less than 1% of projected total gross fixed capital formation over those years.

Countries will be investing trillions of dollars each year repairing, replacing and building new infrastructure, the report said. It called for nations and the private sector to insist that those projects be planned with resilience and adaptation in mind. Including resilience in infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges, for example, would add an average of 3% to the costs of those projects but provide a $4 benefit for every dollar spent, the report said.