The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects coal's share of the nation's power will decline through 2019 to 28.8%, but the latest projections represent an improvement over last month's forecast.
In its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released Feb. 6, the agency predicts U.S. power production will average 11.1 million MWh/d in 2018 before rising 0.8% in 2019 to 11.2 million MWh/d.
According to the report, coal will supply 29.7% of the nation's power in 2018, up from the prior forecast of 29.6%, to natural gas' share of 33.0%, down from the prior forecast of 33.1%. In 2019, the EIA projects coal will provide 28.8% of the country's electric power to natural gas' share of 33.9%. The prior outlook had coal's 28.1% share behind natural gas' 34.3% share.
The government agency expects delivered coal prices will average $2.21/MMBtu through 2019, while delivered natural gas prices average $3.61/MMBtu in 2018 and $3.45/MMBtu in 2019.
The agency raised its 2018 power-sector coal demand forecast by 0.6% versus the prior outlook to 661 million tons, while it boosted its 2019 projection by 2.5% to 646 million tons.
Meanwhile, the agency raised its 2018 domestic coal production forecast by 0.1% versus the prior forecast to 760 million tons and raised its 2019 outlook 2.8% to 762 million tons.
The EIA lowered its 2018 year-end power-sector stockpile outlook by 2.3% versus the prior forecast to 133.1 million tons, while it lowered its 2019 year-end stockpile projection 1.9% to 133.1 million tons.
The EIA expects 2018 U.S. coal exports to reach 81.4 million tons, up 1.6% versus the prior outlook, while it increased its 2019 export forecast 5.0% to 78.4 million tons.
