Power markets across theU.S. saw a dearth of fundamental support Friday, Oct. 7, due to forecasts formostly subdued Oct. 10 demand and lower spot natural gas prices.
In natural gas futures trading,the front-month November contract closed the workweek up 14.4 cents at$3.193/MMBtu. On the other hand, deflated weekend demand depressed values atspot gas markets across the country.
According to the NationalWeather Service, Hurricane Matthew is likely to produce devastating impactsfrom storm surge, extreme winds and heavy rains along extensive portions of theeast coast of Florida. Early reports indicate fewer power outages thanoriginally expected, according to Matthew Rogers, president of the CommodityWeather Group.
West dailies biased higher in revised trade
Support from expectationsof elevated Oct. 10 demand associated with next-day schedule revisionscountered modestly lower spot gas prices and kept dailies in the West supportedFriday.
Noting the biggest swingsof the session were power markets in the Southwest, which added about $5 to $6from Thursday and traded in the low $30s at both Palo Verde and Mead. InCalifornia, South Path-15 added almost $4 from Thursday and traded power in thelow $40s.
In the Northwest,Mid-Columbia deals were flat to Thursday in the mid-$20s while transactions atCOB rose by about $5 in the low to mid-$30s.
The California ISO isprojecting Saturday demand to near 31,425 MW, up roughly 100 MW from Friday.
East values jumbled by mixed demand, falling gasprices
Next-day power prices alongthe eastern seaboard were mixed Friday as some markets were able to withstandpressures from varied load outlooks and stumbling spot gas prices.
At NEPOOL-Mass, next-daydeals added less than a dollar from Thursday and spanned the mid-$20s whiletrades at PJM West slipped by more than a dollar and ranged in the low $30s.
Day-ahead markets mirroreddeflated weekend demand and edged lower. DAMs at New York Zone A fell by about$20 and averaged at $15.02 while DAMs at NEPOOL-Mass shed about $9 fromThursday and averaged at $16.83. Losses of about $2 were noted at DAMs in NewYork Zone G and New York Zone J, which averaged $20.37 and $20.49, respectively.
Grid operators in theNortheast and mid-Atlantic expect choppy demand to kick off the fresh workweek.Load in New England on Oct. 10 may touch 15,000 MW, up 390 MW from Friday,while demand in New York could reach 18,126 MW, shedding roughly 200 MW from Friday.Demand in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region could top out at 30,682 MW on Oct. 10,adding around 150 MW from Friday, while load in the PJM Western region shouldcrest at 46,784 MW on Oct. 10, falling by more than 3,400 MW from Friday.
ERCOT DAMs mixed to higher despite weekend loadoutlooks, cheap gas
Day-ahead markets in Texaswere mixed to higher Friday as outlooks calling for typically weaker weekenddemand and lower spot gas prices failed to pull down values.
DAMs for Saturday deliveryat ERCOT North and ERCOT West added $4 to $5 from Thursday and averaged $28.11and $28.53, respectively, while DAMs at ERCOT Houston and ERCOT South eased byless than a dollar and averaged $36.11 and $31.19, respectively.
ERCOT is expecting Oct. 10demand to run up to 48,488 MW, down more than 1,900 MW from Friday.
Midwest markets pressured by fundamental weakness
A lack of support fromoutlooks calling for declining Oct. 10 demand and losses at spot gas marketspressured trading hubs in the Midwest on Friday.
Load in the Midwest couldstart the new workweek on lower ground. The PJM AEP region and the PJM ComEdregion could see peak Oct. 10 demand fall by about 800 MW from Friday to hithighs of 14,436 MW and 11,285 MW, respectively.
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