Walt Disney Co. hopes to make a sweeping return to form after a rough landing from iconic space pilot Han Solo.
While "Solo: A Star Wars Story" represented an uncharacteristic misstep for Disney, the company's various labels have been far from disappointing throughout the year, and the Pixar-labeled "Incredibles 2" should add generously to the studio's coffers. Forecasters have the film gunning for an animated opening record — laurels the same studio holds for another iconic sequel, "Finding Dory," which opened to $135.1 million in 2016.
BoxOffice.com goes way over that with an incredible $152 million weekend forecast. Deadline Hollywood gives good odds with a range of $135 million to $150 million, while Variety tightens those odds with a forecast range of $125 million to $140 million.
The studio had yet to release a production budget for the film, but comparing it to prior Pixar sequels, "Incredibles 2" may lean heavily on a big box office run. The original 2004 "Incredibles" cost just $92.0 million in production, and "Finding Nemo" cost just $94 million in 2003. "Finding Dory," meanwhile, cost a whopping $202.3 million, according to data from Kagan, a media research group inside S&P Global Market Intelligence. Sequels in the Cars, Monsters and Toy Story franchises went over $175 million also.
But the big production budget should not hold "Incredibles 2" back from substantial profitability. A list of five Pixar comparisons compiled by Kagan saw an average opening of $90.4 million against an average production budget of $175.3 million, and those had an average net profit of $616.3 million, with a 51.8% profit margin.
"Incredibles 2" also shares the hype enjoyed by "Finding Dory." The debut title was running at a 93% "Certified Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 9 a.m. ET on June 15, very similar to the critical result "Finding Dory" landed at ultimately.
"Incredibles 2" will follow record-setting runs for other 2018 Disney flicks like "Black Panther" and "Avengers: Infinity War." However, while the company's studios are used to $1 billion-plus runs for its biggest franchises, "Solo" is still limping through the box office, with BoxOffice.com predicting a meager $193.7 million domestic run after its fourth weekend. Globally, Variety notes that it will struggle to cross $400 million before exiting theaters.
Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc., meanwhile, will debut "Tag," a comedy based on the true story of a multidecade game of tag. The film will open to $13 million, the third-highest earner at the box office behind Warner Bros.' other film "Ocean's 8," according to BoxOffice.com's prediction. Deadline and Variety agree on an opening weekend forecast between $12 million and $16 million.
The $28 million production compares well to a Kagan list of other bromance comedies like "The Hangover" and "Neighbors." Warner Bros. will look to avoid the fate of "Vacation," however, which opened to $14.7 million against a $31.5 million budget. That 2015 title left theaters on a $12.9 million loss. Both "Vacation" and "Tag" star Ed Helms. While "Tag" has not been overly praised by critics, it was still well outperforming "Vacation," which settled at a decidedly "rotten" 26% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. "Tag" was running at a 61% rating, as of 9 a.m. ET on June 15.
Lastly, "Superfly," the reboot of the 1972 film, is set to open wide in a range of $7 million to $15 million, according to forecasters. The title was running a 54% "rotten" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 9:00 a.m. ET on June 15. Kagan film comparisons for "Superfly" were not available as of publication time.