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Fitch trims growth forecasts for Turkey, South Africa

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Fitch trims growth forecasts for Turkey, South Africa

Fitch Ratings has updated its supply-side growth forecasts for large emerging market economies over the next five years, showing downward revisions for Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia.

This comes amid a slowdown in projected investment growth.

Fitch looked at 10 major emerging markets, revising India's growth forecast upward by 0.3 percentage point to 7%, while maintaining the growth forecast for China at 5.5%.

The rating agency trimmed its growth forecast for Turkey by 0.5 percentage point to 4.3%, citing a significant external adjustment since the country's currency crisis in 2018. Fitch expects growth in capital stock and labor productivity to ease compared to earlier projections.

Fitch downgraded its growth forecast for Mexico by 0.3 percentage point to 2.5%, based on less favorable investment prospects as the new Mexican government withholds the implementation of reforms.

Growth forecasts for Indonesia and South Africa were cut by 0.2 percentage point each to 5.3% and 1.7%, respectively. The growth forecast for Brazil declined to 1.7% from 1.8%.