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Natural gas storage data to show another step down in rate of erosion


According to Market Intelligence, December 2022


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Natural gas storage data to show another step down in rate of erosion

The weekly natural gas inventory report to be released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Feb. 2, is expected to show another step down in the rate of storage erosion for the week to Jan. 27 with consensus below the prior week's pull and trailing historical averages.

Analysts and traders surveyed ahead of the release of the upcoming EIA storage report anticipate a 77-Bcf to 98-Bcf withdrawal, with the consensus expectation being a storage withdrawal of 87 Bcf, below the previous week's withdrawal of 119 Bcf, the five-year average withdrawal of 166 Bcf and the 169-Bcf injection reported for the same week in 2016.

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Heating degree-day data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the review week to Jan. 28 reflect unsupportive weather, outlining 17.1% fewer heating degree days compared to the same week last year and 23.4% fewer than normal for the week.

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In the previous week's data, the reported net 119-Bcf withdrawal from natural gas inventories in the Lower 48 during the week ended Jan. 20 just missed the market consensus ahead of the report's release that called for a 121-Bcf drawdown from stocks, and was below both the 202-Bcf withdrawal reported for the same week in 2016 and the five-year average withdrawal of 176 Bcf.

The withdrawal brought the total U.S. working gas supply to 2,798 Bcf, some 348 Bcf below the year-ago level and 20 Bcf below the five-year average storage level of 2,818 Bcf.

The withdrawal anticipated in this week's data would result in a total working gas supply of 2,711 Bcf. The year-on-five-year-average deficit would revert to a 59-Bcf surplus while the deficit to the year-ago level would fall to 266 Bcf.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power, natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.