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AM Power Report: Dailies could shift higher with post-holiday bump in demand

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AM Power Report: Dailies could shift higher with post-holiday bump in demand

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Next-day power prices could step higher Friday, May 25, as traders look to generally stronger demand outlooks upon the return from the extended Memorial Day weekend. Markets will be closed May 28 for the holiday.

Participants will also keep watch of natural gas market activity. Gaining 2.6 cents in the prior day, NYMEX June natural gas futures were extending higher early Friday to $2.954/MMBtu, increasing another 1.4 cents at about 7:05 a.m. ET.

Load levels on most regional grids are expected to falter over the long weekend with a decline in industrial and commercial demand before recovering at the start of the truncated business week.

Demand on the six-state New England grid is likely to reach 15,550 MW on Friday, 12,250 MW on May 28 and 15,750 MW on May 29. Load in New York could touch highs at 22,400 MW on Friday, 16,520 MW on May 28 and rebound to 20,750 MW come May 29.

In the Midwest, demand at the AEP market is seen reaching 18,730 MW on Friday, 19,000 MW on May 28 and 20,400 MW on May 29. Load in ComEd near Chicago is anticipated to top out at 16,300 MW on Friday, 15,300 MW on May 28 and 16,430 MW on May 29.

Demand in Texas is called to crest at 62,500 MW on Friday, 67,000 MW on May 28 and 68,150 MW on May 29.

Looking at the forward curve, in the Northeast, June power deals for delivery in New England and the Zone G market in New York were pegged in the high $20s to low $30s, respectively.

In the mid-Atlantic, June power at the PJM West market was assessed in the mid-$30s.

In the Midwest, June power parcels at the PJM markets were assessed in the mid-$30s at the AD hub and MISO Indiana and in the low $30s in the Northern Illinois hub.

In Texas, June power at ERCOT North was priced just below $100, with third-quarter parcels at the hub eyed in the high $140s.

On the West Coast, June power packages at South Path-15 in California were eyed in the mid-$30s, with June deals at Mid-Columbia reported in the upper teens. June power at Palo Verde was priced in the high $30s, with the third-quarter seen in the upper $40s.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.