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'Joker' to laugh off competition from 'Addams Family,' 'Gemini Man'

Forecasters expect "Joker" to continue making the competition cry over the weekend of Oct. 11, though United Artists' animated film "The Addams Family" should hold its own at the turnstiles.

Forecasters see the family-friendly debut as a strong contender against another debut, action-thriller "Gemini Man," despite the latter's Will Smith lead and $138 million blockbuster-sized budget. "The Addams Family" budget was not disclosed, but BoxOffice.com believes the animated film will take in $28.5 million over its debut weekend. Deadline Hollywood agrees, conjuring up a forecast range of $28 million to $30 million.

"Gemini Man" will compete for young male audiences against "Joker," but Variety believes it can still lead among fellow debut titles. That forecaster gives it a range of $24 million to $29 million against a slightly less optimistic range for "Addams Family" of $21 million to $27 million.

BoxOffice.com expects "Gemini Man" to have a $22.8 million opening weekend. Deadline gives it a range of $24 million to $29 million.

SNL Image"The Addams Family"
Source: United Artists

According to BoxOffice.com, families are driving up presales for the animated film amid a relative dearth of all-ages content. Not only do "Joker" and "Gemini Man" fail to appeal to kids, but "Addams Family" offers parents some original classic intellectual property to spark their nostalgia. For these reasons, it compares well to "The Peanuts Movie" from 2015 and "Smurfs: The Lost Village" from 2017. "Peanuts Movie" opened to $44.2 million and worked its way to $75.0 million in net profits. "Lost Village" opened to just $13.2 million but still managed net profits of $17.8 million, according to Kagan, a media market research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

However, critics are not handing "Addams Family" a thing. The movie had a dismal 33% "rotten" rating on critical review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, as of 12 p.m. ET, Oct. 11.

"Gemini Man" was not getting a much better shot from critics, holding a 29% "rotten" rating on Rotten Tomatoes at the same time.

However, if "Gemini Man" manages to move through theaters the way fellow Ang Lee-directed film "Life of Pi" did, it could still prove profitable. That 2012 Kagan comparison opened to just $22.5 million against a $121.3 million budget and exited with $368.2 million in net profit. However, with just $125.0 million in domestic revenue, "Life of Pi" depended on international sales to dock safely in the black. "Gemini Man" will look to avoid the fate of another Will Smith film "After Earth," which opened to $27.5 million and suffered a net loss of $27.1 million.

Neither effort is expected to unseat "Joker" from its dark throne. Forecasters generally expect a sophomore weekend in the mid-$40 million range, adding to a strong $96 million October record opening.

Rounding out the genres for the Oct. 11 weekend will be the Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.-distributed comedy "Jexi," which is widely expected to land around $5 million or below. The title has "very low awareness," as Deadline puts it, and did not have a Rotten Tomatoes score as of early Oct. 11. Kagan's most optimistic comparison puts it beside 2013's romantic comedy "About Time," which opened to $4.8 million and landed in the black by $36.8 million. On the other end of expectations is "21 & Over," which opened the same year to $8.8 million and exited in the red by $36.1 million.

SNL Image