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Power markets open workweek mixed despite supportive fundamentals

Power prices at next-day markets across the U.S. were mixed Monday, Dec. 11, despite higher demand forecasts and elevated spot gas prices.

After closing the previous week in shallow positive territory, the front-month January 2018 natural gas futures contract favored gains and exited the session 5.6 cents higher at $2.828/MMBtu. Excluding deals at Transco Zone 6 New York, spot gas markets also moved higher and supported power markets.

The National Weather Service said snow will return to the Northeast by Tuesday as another front moves the region, which supports heating demand.

In other power supply, following the loss of three reactors, total U.S. nuclear plant availability fell to 94.32% by early Dec. 11.

East values flounder despite cold weather, higher gas prices

Incoming cold weather and an expected boost to heating demand and firm spot natural gas markets failed to support values at next-day markets in the East on Monday.

Next-day markets in the Northeast saw sizable losses with power at the New England Mass hub trading in the mid- to high $50s, down from a Dec. 8 index of $72.50, while New York Zone G packages were about $8 lower and ranged in the mid-$40s. In the mid-Atlantic, PJM West transactions eased by roughly a dollar and changed hands in the mid-$30s to low $40s.

Day-ahead markets favored the upside with deals at the New England Mass hub and New York Zone J being done $7 to $8 higher to averages of $53.42 and $47.28, respectively, while New York Zone A and New York Zone G packages were $2 to $5 higher from Dec. 8 and averaged $35.78 and $44.79, respectively.

Demand forecasts in the Northeast are mixed, with New England called to see a high of 17,800 MW on Monday and Tuesday, while New York may see peaks of 21,306 MW on Monday and 21,292 MW on Tuesday.

Load outlooks in the mid-Atlantic are pointed higher, with the PJM Mid-Atlantic region possibly noting highs of 37,909 MW on Monday and 38,396 MW on Tuesday, while load in the PJM Western region should hit peaks of 57,462 MW on Monday and 60,365 MW on Tuesday.

Midwest markets firm with fundamental support

Strong load forecasts and higher spot gas prices alongside ongoing cold weather kept next-day markets in the region higher Monday.

Power deals at the PJM AEP-Dayton and MISO Indiana hubs added $1 to $2 from Dec. 8 and were quoted in the mid-$30s.

Load is set to rise in the Midwest. Demand in the PJM AEP region may crest at 18,901 MW on Monday and 18,908 MW on Tuesday, while load in the PJM ComEd region should top out at 13,618 MW on Monday and 13,713 MW on Tuesday.

Northwest, Calif. dailies firm; Southwest markets wane

Flat to predominantly higher moves were noted at Western power markets on Monday as most locations were supported by higher spot gas prices and rising Tuesday load forecasts.

The California ISO is calling for peaks of 30,326 MW on Monday and 30,625 MW on Tuesday. Inspired by demand, on-peak power at North Path-15 and South Path-15 added $1 to $4 on the session and changed hands in the low $40s at the former and the mid- to high $50s at the latter. In the Northwest, deals at the California-Oregon Border hub were priced in the low to mid-$30s, up about $4 on the session. Conversely, in the Southwest, Palo Verde deals eased slightly and ranged in the mid-$20s.

Texas prices ease with lower load forecasts

Declining Tuesday demand forecasts countered higher spot gas prices and worked to pull down day-ahead markets in Texas on Monday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is projecting peaks of 45,953 MW on Monday and 43,309 MW on Tuesday.

Bogged down by demand, day-ahead deals at ERCOT South and ERCOT West shed roughly a dollar with power averaging $22.82 and $21.20, respectively, while losses of less than a dollar were notched at ERCOT Houston and ERCOT North, where day-ahead packages averaged $22.49 and $21.91, respectively.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.