trending Market Intelligence /marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/66loaoifxbrer93vn5jcaa2 content esgSubNav
In This List

OPEC trims global oil demand estimates for 2018, 2019

Podcast

Next in Tech | Episode 49: Carbon reduction in cloud

Blog

Using ESG Analysis to Support a Sustainable Future

Research

US utility commissioners: Who they are and how they impact regulation

Blog

Q&A: Datacenters: Energy Hogs or Sustainability Helpers?


OPEC trims global oil demand estimates for 2018, 2019

OPEC will need to maintain its current supply levels to meet demand for its crude through 2018 but it could throttle back output in 2019, according to the cartel's own monthly analysis released Nov. 13.

OPEC dropped its 2018 global demand estimate for its crude oil to 32.6 million barrels per day this year, down 900,000 barrels per day from 2017 levels. Demand for OPEC crude is expected to fall to 31.5 MMbbl/d in 2019, down from a prior estimate of 31.9 MMbbl/d.

According to secondary sources used to track member output, the cartel's first-quarter production totaled 32.4 MMbbl/d, while second-quarter output was 32.2 MMbbl/d. Third-quarter OPEC production totaled 32.6 MMbbl/d.

While OPEC slightly lowered its expectation for yearly oil demand growth for both 2018 and 2019, it hiked its projection for non-OPEC supply growth to 59.86 MMbbl/d in 2018 and 62.09 MMbbl/d in 2019.

World oil demand is projected to average 98.79 MMbbl/d in 2018, and is likely to surpass 100 MMbbl/d for the first time ever in 2019, reaching 100.08 MMbbl/d.

"Although the oil market has reached a balance now, the forecasts for 2019 for non-OPEC supply growth indicate higher volumes outpacing the expansion in world oil demand, leading to widening excess supply in the market," the report said.

In September, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development commercial oil stocks totaled 2.86 billion barrels, which is 111 million barrels lower than the same time one year ago and 25 million barrels below the latest five-year average.