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Power markets lack support ahead of Thanksgiving holiday

Daily power markets saw a dearth of fundamental support Wednesday, Nov. 22, amid outlooks for slack demand and a decline in spot gas prices.

Despite reports of a 46-Bcf net withdrawal during the week ended Nov. 17 that was well below consensus estimates, the front-month December natural gas futures contract closed the session with a 4.9-cent loss at $2.968/MMBtu. Owing to subdued holiday demand, spot gas markets notched losses and exchanged packages for Nov. 23-27 delivery.

In other supply, total U.S. nuclear plant availability rose to 93.23% early Nov. 22.

Looking at demand, according to a forecast from AccuWeather.com, "A quick dose of cold air with lake-effect snow will race across the Upper Midwest and into the northeastern United States this weekend."

East values tumble with demand forecasts, sagging gas prices

Power values in the East found no support Wednesday from deflated demand forecasts and a decline in regional spot gas prices.

Losses of about $3 were noted across next-day markets with power at the New England Mass hub trading in the high $20s while PJM West deals were done in the mid-$20s.

Reflecting slack holiday demand, day-ahead markets in the Northeast tumbled $2 to $4 to averages of $30.52 at the Mass hub, $22.57 at New York Zone A, $28.55 at Zone G and $28.93 at Zone J.

Load outlooks indicate declining demand in both the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. New England load may top out at 16,250 MW on Wednesday and 14,180 MW on Thursday before rising to 14,810 MW on Nov. 24, while New York demand should crest at 19,870 MW on Wednesday and 16,523 MW on Thursday then climb to 18,209 MW on Nov. 24

The PJM Mid-Atlantic region may see demand hit peaks of 34,645 MW on Wednesday and 31,132 MW on Thursday then rebound to 31,912 MW on Nov. 24, while load in the PJM Western region should near highs of 54,967 MW on Wednesday, 48,590 MW on Thursday and 47,912 MW on Nov. 24.

Most West markets sag in revised trade; Mid-Columbia trades firm

A decline in regional spot gas prices countered higher weekday demand associated with next-day schedule revisions and worked to pull down most power markets in the West on Wednesday.

To account for Thanksgiving on Nov. 23, power markets in the West exchanged packages for Nov. 25-27 delivery.

In California, power packages were down less than a dollar in the mid- to high $30s. In the Southwest, power packages slipped about $2 and spanned the low $20s at Palo Verde and the high $20s at Mead. Flat to higher moves were seen in the Northwest with Mid-Columbia packages seeing little change in the low to mid-$20s while the California-Oregon Border saw transactions slip around $3 in the high $20s.

Demand in California is called to reach 31,673 MW on Wednesday and 27,606 MW on Thursday.

Texas prices sink with holiday demand forecasts

Outlooks for tumbling holiday demand alongside losses in spot gas markets fueled a loss at day-ahead markets in Texas on Wednesday.

Demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas is called to reach highs of 39,143 MW on Wednesday, 37,640 MW on Thursday and 35,863 MW on Nov. 24.

Mirroring the deflated load forecast, day-ahead deals at ERCOT Houston, ERCOT North and ERCOT West shed $1 to $3 from Tuesday and averaged $22.99, $21.77 and $22.01, respectively, while ERCOT South deals were down close to a dollar and averaged $24.16.

Midwest markets unsupported by demand outlooks, falling gas prices

Slack load outlooks and falling spot gas prices gave no support to Midwestern power markets on Wednesday.

Demand is set to fall over the Thanksgiving holiday. The PJM AEP region is called to see peaks of 16,825 MW on Wednesday, 15,897 MW on Thursday and 15,009 MW on Nov. 24, while demand in the PJM ComEd region should note highs of 12,776 MW on Wednesday and 10,268 MW on Thursday then recover to 10,913 MW on Nov. 24.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.