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Under current policies and expected trends, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is projecting that Asia-led global economic growth will fuel a nearly 50% increase in world energy consumption between 2018 and 2050, to 911 quadrillion Btu.
With most of the economic growth slated to occur in developing countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, the EIA forecast in its new International Energy Outlook 2019 that a resulting growth in end-use consumption will increase electricity generation 79% worldwide by midcentury.
However, at the report's Sept. 24 release, EIA Administrator Linda Capuano cautioned that a lot of uncertainties exist over the expected growth of energy consumption in non-OECD countries. "How energy efficient will it be? How much energy will be in industries? How much air conditioning will be used and how many cars will be driven?" Capuano asked.
Alongside expectations of economic growth at rates of nearly 4% or higher in India, Africa, China and non-OECD Asian countries, Capuano said the industrial sector — and, specifically, energy-intensive manufacturing — will continue to consume the most energy. "While China remains the world's largest single industrial energy consumer, growth is steadily moving to non-OECD Asia and India," she explained. "Collectively, non-OECD countries consume more energy in the industrial sector and their energy consumption growth is about twice the rate of the OECD countries."
The EIA report said developed and developing countries have "vastly different" electricity demand growth profiles. While demand for net electricity generation in the OECD is slated to grow 1.0% on average annually between 2018 and 2050, non-OECD demand is expected to grow 2.3% on average annually.
"In OECD countries, where more policy initiatives affect electric generation, demand growth is met primarily with renewables, which also displace some existing generation," the report said. In contrast, growth in non-OECD electricity demand is expected to be "met by a mix of renewables and nonrenewable generating technologies, generally influenced by regional resource and economic considerations," the EIA said.
Renewables, fossil fuels, emissions
Driven by economics and policy incentives, Capuano said renewables, including hydropower, will see the fastest growth of all generation resource types through 2050, with renewable energy consumption expected to increase globally by an average of 3.6% annually. That growth will lead to renewables displacing petroleum as the most-used energy source in the world, starting in the late 2040s, she said.
Among renewables, the EIA said, electricity generation from wind and solar resources will reach 6.7 trillion kWh and 8.3 trillion kWh, respectively, by midcentury. Wind and solar will account for over 70% of total renewable generation by then.
However, global energy consumption is expected to continue to outpace renewable growth, Capuano said. "And while their shares decline, fossil fuel consumption, including coal, are projected to increase to meet demand," she said. Specifically, coal's use will experience a comeback starting in the 2040s to meet demand in India and non-OECD Asian countries.
Looking forward to 2050, the EIA forecasted that natural gas-fired generation will grow by an average of 1.5% annually, while nuclear generation will grow by 1.0% annually. The EIA expects the level of
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"Despite a less carbon-intensive fuel mix, growth in energy consumption results in a continuing rise in global energy-related CO2 emissions," Capuano said.
"In the near term, energy-related CO2 emissions growth is slowed by increases in energy efficiency and a gradual shift from coal towards natural gas and renewable energy resources," Capuano explained. "In the longer term, broad population and economic growth increases global energy consumption that leads to increasing emissions."
According to the report, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to grow at an average rate of 0.6% annually between 2018 and 2050, compared to the average growth rate of 1.8% annually from 1990 to 2018.
While projected energy-related CO2 emissions in developed OECD countries are expected to decline 0.2% annually through 2050, the report said energy-related CO2 emissions from non-OECD countries will grow at a rate of about 1% annually.
Capuano also said oil consumption is not expected to peak by midcentury, "despite the tremendous growth in electricity use" to meet growing electricity demand, including from over 400 million electric vehicles that are projected to be deployed in 2050.
However, the EIA administrator noted that the report's reference case generally rests on current policies and regulations, which can always change in the future. "The EIA does not project or guess at potential policy changes," Capuano said. "So there is still an opportunity to reduce [CO2 emissions] further with energy efficiencies, new technologies, and additional policies."


