Editor's Note:
After faltering by 2.1 cents to settle at $2.815/MMBtu in the prior session, NYMEX June natural gas futures were near unchanged overnight ahead of the Thursday, May 17, open and the midmorning release of storage data that is poised to become the next major catalyst for price movement. At 7:15 a.m. ET, the contract was 0.7 cent lower at $2.808/MMBtu while trading a range from $2.804/MMBtu to $2.822/MMBtu.
Warmer weather that generated early cooling load but also encouraged a sharp decline in heating demand is expected to have driven the season's first triple-digit storage injection when the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its next inventory report at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday that will cover the week ended May 11.
During the week ended May 9, much of which will be reflected in the upcoming storage data, warmer weather triggered a 14% increase in power burn week on week alongside a 37% drop in residential/commercial-sector demand, according to the EIA's latest "Natural Gas Weekly Update." Total U.S. gas consumption was down 4% on the week.
Estimates for the storage data call for a build to stocks from 99 Bcf to 110 Bcf, with consensus at a 104-Bcf addition. That would compare to a 64-Bcf prior-year injection and an 87-Bcf five-year average build.
Total working gas stocks sat at 1,432 Bcf, or 863 Bcf below the year-ago level and 520 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,952 Bcf, after the EIA reported an 89-Bcf injection for the week ended May 4.
Additional warmer weather is on deck for the bulk of the country in the weeks ahead as the National Weather Service continues to see above-average temperatures gripping nearly the entire country through the six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day periods.
Analysts see diverging weather-related demand patterns associated with warmer conditions driving a degree of uncertainty in the market, however. "We continue to look for the possibility of a two-sided trade because projected warm weather suggests low heating demand, but the building of cooling demand, could have a mixed impact on the rate of subsequent storage injections," FX Empire analyst James Hyerczyk said in a May 16 note.
Next-day natural gas prices mostly retreated Wednesday, in line with futures.
Among the key hubs, Transco Zone 6 NY spot gas prices led the downtrend with a near 19-cent decline on average to an index at $2.300/MMBtu. Chicago day-ahead gas price action followed with a roughly 12-cent reduction in deals averaging at $2.493/MMBtu, then PG&E Gate hub activity that eased by about 1 cent to an index at $2.910/MMBtu. Defying the wider slump, benchmark Henry Hub cash gas pricing tacked 2 cents on the day to average at $2.850/MMBtu.

In regional terms, Northeast day-ahead gas price activity logged an almost 12-cent decrease in trades averaging at $2.261/MMBtu as Midwest cash gas pricing unraveled about 14 cents to average $2.425/MMBtu. West Coast spot gas price action bucked the broad downtrend with a near 7-cent advance to an index at $1.883/MMBtu as Gulf Coast next-day gas prices slipped by roughly 5 cents on average to an index at $2.717/MMBtu.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.
