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Global electricity demand for EVs to soar by 2030, energy watchdog says

While expanding volumes of electric vehicles have had "limited impact" on global power grids to date, the consequences become "sizable" in coming years amid an anticipated explosion in demand for EVs, the International Energy Agency said in a new report.

"Ensuring that this demand is met with low-carbon electricity is a major imperative," the Paris-based IEA said May 30. In addition, regulators, policymakers, grid operators, manufacturers and drivers of electric vehicles must collaborate to manage charging to avoid unwanted impacts on electric systems, such as exacerbating periods of peak demand, the agency said.

Worldwide power demand from electric vehicles will soar to between 404 TWh and 928 TWh by 2030, a roughly seven- to 17-fold jump from the estimated 54 TWh electric vehicles consumed in 2017, the IEA said in its latest outlook for electric vehicles. The forecast assumes 125 million to 220 million light-duty EVs will be on the road by 2030, rising from more than 3 million in 2017, in addition to increasing numbers of electric buses, scooters and other electric vehicles.

China, which accounted for 91% of global EV electricity demand in 2017, will see its share decline to between 29% and 47% by 2030, IEA said. The United States could make up 10% to 20% of global EV electricity consumption by 2030, while European countries could account for 17% to 18%, according to the report.

As for vehicle sales, China saw the largest number of vehicles sold, with 580,000 in 2017, more than double the number sold in the U.S., which had the second-largest number of vehicle sales, the IEA said. By market share, Norway had the largest percentage of EV sales, totaling 39% of all vehicle sales in 2017, followed by Iceland, where EVs totaled 12% of all vehicle sales. China represented almost the entire global market for electric buses and two-wheeled vehicles, the IEA said.

Recommendations

Among the specific measures the agency recommended are to accelerate the rollout of advanced metering infrastructure, or smart meters, to enable demand-side management of charging. Such managed charging, along with time-of-use rates, can help to shift EV electricity consumption away from periods of peak power demand.

"Plugging EVs to the grid after the evening traffic peak may exacerbate the peak in power draw," the IEA said. That, in turn, increases the risk of overloading the distribution network and requiring grid upgrades. "If not properly managed, increased power draw at peak times could also require additional generation capacity," the IEA said.

Some of the strongest markets for electric vehicles to emerge so far already are giving grid operators headaches. A representative of the California ISO recently said current trends in electric-vehicle charging are making grid management more challenging.

The IEA said regulators could go as far as requiring EV manufacturers to install software "that by default distributed the majority of charging to occurring during power demand troughs." EV buyers would then have the choice to opt out of such "charging algorithms."

Echoing a recent report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the IEA also cautioned about supply risks for key battery metals lithium and cobalt. Much of the world's supply of cobalt is produced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and much of the world's cobalt refining capacity is in China. The IEA also called access to fast-charging stations "a critical facet" of EV adoption for major markets such as China, Europe and the U.S.