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No-deal Brexit to affect 73,000 Irish jobs, disrupt growth: Central bank

The Central Bank of Ireland said Oct. 11 that a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 would affect about 73,000 jobs in the country by the end of 2021 and adversely impact economic growth due to significant disruption to economic activity.

The unemployment rate in Ireland would rise to 5.8% in 2020 and 6.9% in 2021 if the U.K. leaves the European Union without a deal, as opposed to an average unemployment rate of 4.8% in both years in case the sides reach a breakthrough.

The central bank projected GDP growth rates of 5%, 4.3% and 3.9% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, in the event of a deal, without which, growth is expected to fall to 4.7%, 0.8% and 1.9%, respectively.

A no-deal Brexit will jolt the exchange rate, trade, consumption and investment, resulting in a marked deterioration in economic conditions, with a more adverse outlook, the central bank said.

"This is the first time the Central Bank has published two forecasts for the Irish economy, and this is due to the extraordinary and unprecedented nature of the Brexit process," said Mark Cassidy, director of economics and statistics.

Sectors, such as agriculture, food and small and medium-sized enterprises, are likely to be more adversely affected due to the potential tariffs and non-tariff barriers, Cassidy said.

The Guardian reported that the EU may offer to delay Brexit until June 2020.

In addition, deteriorating global economic conditions were identified as external risks to the Irish economy.