The price of power dailies could favor the upside in the week's opening session Monday, March 19, on the back of prospects for generally elevated demand on Tuesday.
Ending near unchanged ahead of the weekend, NYMEX April natural gas futures were extending higher Monday ahead of the opening bell. At 6:40 a.m. ET, the front-month contract was up 0.6 cent to $2.694/MMBtu, with support from weather outlooks calling for colder-than-normal weather for the majority of the country through the end of March.
Amid the support from the weather and the slight uptick in futures, next-day natural gas prices at many major consuming hubs could shift higher in the week's opening session.
On the demand side, outlooks spell rising load in much of the country as the fresh workweek unfolds.
In the Northeast, demand in New England could touch a high near 16,350 MW on Monday and16,190 MW on Tuesday, while load in New York could crest at 19,122 MW on Monday and 19,234 MW on Tuesday. Farther south, PJM Western region load could see highs at 52,213 MW at the start of the new business week and 52,473 MW on Tuesday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load could peak at 35,490 MW on Monday and 37,250 MW on Tuesday.
In the Midwest, load in the PJM AEP region should near 16,574 MW on Monday and 16,583 MW on Tuesday, while demand in PJM ComEd is poised to top out at 12,007 MW on Monday and 12,060 MW on Tuesday.
In the South, load in Texas is seen hitting highs at 42,655 MW at the return of the workweek and 37,903 MW on Tuesday, bucking the dominant uptrend.
In the West, demand in California is called to reach 27,365 MW on Monday and 27,742 MW on Tuesday.
In term trading, power prices for April were mixed but mostly biased higher ahead of the weekend, as an uptick at the natural gas futures complex implied a boost in fueling costs.
In the East, front-month power defied the wider uptrend with a 30-cent decline to the mid-$30s in New England and a roughly 20-cent slump to the low $30s at PJM West. Power for May delivery was marked in the high $20s in New England and the mid-$30s at PJM West.
In the Midwest, transactions for April power were up about 20 cents in the low to mid-$30s at PJM AD, while similar deals bucked the broad uptick with a 40-cent retreat to the high $20s at PJM Northern Illinois and a 55-cent decrease to the low $30s at MISO Indiana. May power trades were done in the high $20s to the high $30s overall.
In the South, the ERCOT hubs saw month-ahead power tack on 30 cents to as much as 70 cents in deals carried out in the high $20s to the low $30s, a range shared with trading activity for May power delivery.
In the West, almost 20-cent gains took April power to the low $30s at North Path-15 and the high $20s at South Path-15. A 35-cent increase drove Mid-Columbia April power to the high $10s, and a roughly 80-cent advance steered Palo Verde April to the high $20s. Farther along the forward curve, May power was valued in the low $10s at Mid-Columbia and in the high $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.


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