Following a 0.7-cent gain to settle at $2.688/MMBtu ahead of the weekend, NYMEX April natural gas futures seesawed overnight leading up to the Monday, March 19, open, as moderate weather associated with spring looks to keep demand subdued n the weeks ahead and allow for a changeover from weekly storage withdrawals to injections. At 7:20 a.m. ET, the contract was 0.7 cent higher at $2.688/MMBtu while trading from $2.675/MMBtu to $2.697/MMBtu.
Although below-average temperature readings linger in midrange forecasts, the arrival of the spring shoulder season spells higher low temperatures likely to keep a lid on heating demand ahead of the onset of significant cooling load. Spring will officially begin at 12:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 20.
National Weather Service outlooks show below-average temperatures enveloping the bulk of the West, a few parts of the Midwest, nearly the entire Northeast and much of the mid-Atlantic into a corner of North Carolina in the six- to 10-day period, before receding from the West Coast but still holding over a majority of the West, overtaking much of the central U.S., all of the Northeast into the upper tier of the mid-Atlantic in the eight- to 14-day period.
Average to above-average temperatures initially prevail over parts of the southern Rockies and a majority of the country's eastern two-thirds, but eventually encompass the West Coast, lower mid-Atlantic, balance of the Midwest and much of the South.
Further out, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipates warmer-than-normal weather over much of the country from April through June, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and the north-central U.S. likely to see equal chances of below-average, normal or above-average temperatures through the period.
Already, colder weather that is seen to have encouraged an uptick in heating demand to start March did not translate to a significant storage draw in the latest inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The EIA detailed a 93-Bcf withdrawal in its latest storage report for the week ended March 9 that added to the series of smaller-than-average draws of late. It was above the 55-Bcf year-ago drawdown, but below the 97-Bcf five-year-average pull and the full range of estimates coming into the day. Working gas stocks currently sit at 1,532 Bcf, or 718 Bcf below the year-ago level and 296 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,828 Bcf.
Another round of cold weather is seen to have kept demand elevated in the subsequent days, with the EIA's "Natural Gas Weekly Update" for the week to March 14 reflecting a 5% gain in total U.S. gas consumption versus the week ago.
Downside pressure is being contained, however, by expectations for a significantly diminished end-of-withdrawal-season stocks. Assuming storage draws match the five-year average for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the EIA sees working gas stocks reaching 1,406 Bcf on March 31, which is 17% lower than the five-year average.
Price activity for the natural gas offering moved on March 16 for a revised Saturday-through-Monday flow was weighed down in much of the country by the inclusion of the low-demand weekend days in the package.
Looking at the key hubs, roughly 9-cent losses on average drove PG&E Gate and Chicago spot gas prices to indexes at $2.703/MMBtu and $2.449/MMBtu, respectively. A near 7-cent reduction took benchmark Henry Hub next-day gas pricing to an index at $2.624/MMBtu, as an almost 2-cent gain against the wider decline nudged Transco Zone 6 NY hub action to an index at $2.814/MMBtu.

On a regional basis, West Coast day-ahead gas price activity shed about 4 cents on the session to average at $2.054/MMBtu, while Midwest cash gas price action notched an approximately 12-cent decrease in trades averaging at $2.250/MMBtu. Gulf Coast spot gas pricing retreated by 5 cents to an index at $2.554/MMBtu, as Northeast next-day gas prices fell by 6 cents on average to an index at $3.335/MMBtu.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.
