The three-month zinc price on the London Metal Exchange has averaged US$2,030 per tonne so far in June, up from the May average of US$1,975/t. This is the highest monthly average since February and is in line with our expectations for the second quarter.
- We have increased our Chinese demand forecast for 2020 by 70,000 tonnes to 6.53 million tonnes. This was driven by the announcement of stimulus to the effect of 1.6 trillion yuan following the National People's Congress in Beijing.
- An increase in the Chinese Caixin Purchasing Managers Index in May to 50.7 from 49.4 in April strengthens our view.
- We have increased our global refined output forecast for 2020 by 83,000 tonnes to 13.43 Mt following higher-than-expected refined production results from many large producers.
- In parallel with this, we have raised our forecast for mined zinc output in 2020 by 84,000 tonnes to 13.30 Mt as a result of better-than-expected zinc-in-concentrate output.
- Based on higher refined supply expectations, we have lowered our 2020 zinc price forecast to US$2,000/t.
- For 2021, we forecast a decrease in the market surplus to 10,000 tonnes and the price to increase year over year to US$2,220/t.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.