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Fall box office: Theaters eye uptick after soft summer; Disney poised to grow

With the 2019 box office for U.S. films down 6.2% going into the last weekend of summer, studios will look to the remaining four months of the year for redemption, and forecasters are seeing plenty of gas in the tank.

Titles like "It: Chapter 2," "Joker" and "Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker" are expected to prop up what has been a lackluster year at the multiplexes.

The comparisons with 2018 box office performances are not too difficult. There was a notable shortage of $100 million-plus domestic openings among the top movies in the September-December frame of 2018, according to data from Kagan, a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence. The highest opening of that period was "Venom," which bowed to $80.3 million in early October 2018 and grossed $979.2 million. The top earning film of the final months of the year was "Aquaman," with solid international tracking leading to total revenue of $1.25 billion after a $67.9 million domestic opening.

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Shoring up studios hopes for a win in 2019, forecasters are tagging a few 2019 films with nine-figure hopes. The first will come over the Sept. 6 weekend, where BoxOffice.com gives "It: Chapter 2" the edge to collect $105.0 million over its first three days. Deadline Hollywood also gives it the $100 million nod at the top of its forecast range. While that is not as strong as its predecessor, which set a horror-genre record with a $123.4 million opening, it will still help wake up the turnstiles, which have been sleeping in the summer heat since "The Lion King" roared through theaters July 19 with a $191.7 million opening.

Following "It: Chapter 2," the newest iteration of Batman's fateful foe the "Joker" will drop on Oct. 4, which BoxOffice.com gives a shot at $81 million. Then The Walt Disney Co. will end the year with a massive gift basket of franchise favorites like "Frozen 2" and "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker," both carrying good chances to break $100 million at the opening.

There are several other titles dropping in the fall season that could also support a 2019 win behind the blockbusters. Forecasters are giving surprise break-out Jennifer Lopez-led stripper movie "Hustlers" a shot at $30 million, and "Rambo: Last Blood" could land a franchise-best at $24 million for opening. Both of those will come in September. In addition, what Business Insider calls "one of the most anticipated movies of the year" astronaut drama "Ad Astra" starring Brad Pitt could ring in over $20 million at the opening. In October, Disney will drop another installment with middle-weight franchise "Maleficent: Mistress of Evil," which could go as high as $50 million.

With new films in the Frozen, Star Wars and Maleficent franchises, Disney will likely continue to dominate the fall box office. The Mouse House delivered almost 50% of ticket sales through the summer season, according to Deadline. Most of that momentum came from its Disney, Marvel and Pixar studios. The expected positive fall season will be a deviation from 2018, when Disney distributed just two movies of the top 10 films in the final four months of the year, with its highest opening coming in sixth place with "Ralph Breaks the Internet" at just $56.2 million, according to Kagan.

Disney had a solid summer, with nine-figure openings from powerhouses like "The Lion King" and "Toy Story 4" and a record-breaking run from "Avengers: Endgame." That said, the season still tracked down by 0.8% leading into Labor Day weekend, according to Kagan. And between Disney's near half-stake in theatrical receipts and Netflix Inc. also releasing big-budget, award hopefuls like Martin Scorsese's "The Irishman," Eddie Murphy's "Dolemite Is My Name" and Steven Soderbergh's "The Laundromat" during the fall season, other studios could find themselves pinched between a rock (Disney) and a hard place (in-home streaming) as forecasters are projecting just middling openings for some of their highest hopes.