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White House corrects Kudlow on start date of trade talks with China

Segment

IFRS 9 Impairment How It Impacts Your Corporation And How We Can Help

The Market Intelligence Platform


White House corrects Kudlow on start date of trade talks with China

The White House clarified that a 90-day negotiation period with China is in fact underway, hours after National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters that the trade truce talks were slated to begin Jan. 1, 2019.

In an updated transcript of a call with reporters held Dec. 3, the White House press secretary's office said the talks started Dec. 1, confirming an earlier statement released following President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 1. The White House said at the time that the two leaders had reached a temporary truce to a trade war and tariffs.

Trump confirmed that corrected start date in a tweet on Dec. 4, stating that negotiations with China "have already started."

"Unless extended, they will end 90 days from the date of our wonderful and very warm dinner with President Xi in Argentina," Trump tweeted.

The deadline for a deal to be reached between the two economic powerhouses is March 1, 2019, based on the start date of the talks outlined by the White House.

The U.S. agreed to delay a tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese imports, according to the White House. If a deal is not reached, Washington will raise the rate of its currently imposed tariffs on the $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%.

Chinese officials have acknowledged the temporary deal with the U.S. but have not commented publicly about a 90-day negotiation period.

A deal is contingent on Beijing making advances to quell its outstanding issues with forced technology transfer of American companies doing business there as well as intellectual property protection.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is leading those talks, though Kudlow said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin "will still be very involved."

Kudlow also told reporters that he believed President Trump's recently made threats to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement was done to "light a fire under Congress" to pass the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which will replace the existing North American trade deal.

He could not confirm if and when that withdrawal, which some companies and trade groups warn could be devastating for North American supply chains, may happen.


Credit Analysis
IFRS 9 Impairment How It Impacts Your Corporation And How We Can Help

IFRS 9 is a reporting standard for financial instruments that replaces IAS39 (the previous incurred loss standard) with the introduction of provisions for expected credit losses (ECLs) on all financial assets, such as those held to collect contractual cash flows, or held with the possibility of being sold.

The date for adoption was January 1, 2018 and is mandatory for public non-financial corporations (and financial institutions) across a number of jurisdictions outside the United States, including many European countries.

The two key changes introduced by the IFRS 9 accounting standard are:

  • Calculation and provisions must be performed on all affected financial assets, not just the impaired ones, as per the standard it replaces
  • New expected credit loss calculations

Additional challenges will be presented when making assessments for low default asset classes, and companies may find it difficult to access models and sufficient data history.

Impact for non-financial corporations

Non-financial corporations will have some material exposure to many of the financial assets that are defined under IFRS 9. These include investment portfolios, intercompany loans, lease receivables, contract assets, and trade receivables, as illustrated below and further explained in our webinar on IFRS 9 for non-financial corporates.

This, together with the need to assess losses on performing and non-performing assets, might have a material impact on the profit and loss (P&L) of such companies.

ECL calculations under IFRS 9

The IFRS 9 accounting standard introduces new expected credit loss (ECL) calculations that require more data and new models. The key requirements are:

  • Significant increase in credit risk (SICR): Expected loss needs to be assessed at each reporting period to identify a SICR since initial recognition
  • Explicit macro-economic forecasts need to be considered using factors such as the relevant GDP growth, unemployment rate, and stock market index growth figures
  • Credit risk metrics such as probability of default (PD), credit rating, credit score, and loss given default (LGD) need to be adjusted to point in time (PiT), versus through the cycle (TTC)
  • Calculations need to be extended over the lifetime of the assets for underperforming exposures, or in standardized calculations

General versus simplified approach

When performing ECL calculations for trade receivables, the company can choose to take a general or simplified approach (the company is presented with a choice between the two depending on the type of exposure).

  • The general approach uses the 12-month ECL calculation for performing assets (Stage 1 assets) and lifetime calculation for the assets whose creditworthiness has deteriorated since recognition (Stage 2 assets)
  • The simplified approach uses the lifetime ECL calculation for all performing and non-performing assets

The simplified approach can have a bigger impact on P&L expense, as all losses are calculated over the lifetime of the asset, while the general approach can have more impact on P&L volatility, as assets might move between stages incurring 12-month and lifetime calculations.

How S&P Global Market Intelligence can help

A best practice approach used by many financial institutions, which non-financial corporations can also use to comply with the new provision, is to use the existing TTC metrics and convert them into PiT metrics to reflect the current credit cycle, as well as include the required future macroeconomic considerations.

S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed models and tools to help your business undertake the relevant ECL calculations. These models can also be used to assess the creditworthiness of your counterparties and recovery of your exposure in the context of your core business process such as customer credit, supply chain risk, vendor management, and selection and transfer pricing.

The calculation method involves four steps:

  1. We calculate the TTC metric, i.e. the S&P Global Market Intelligence Fundamental PD, CreditModel™ score, for the concerned entity.
  2. We apply our macro-economic model, which weights user defined macro-economic scenarios to produce weighted average forecasted PDs.
  3. We apply a credit cycle adjustment, which converts the TTC risk metric into a PiT PD, leveraging the difference between observed default rates from S&P Global Ratings’ rated universe over last year versus over the past 30+ years.
  4. In addition, as a best practice, we also offer the option to incorporate market-based forward looking information. This is done by further adjusting the PD with the analysis of PD Market Signals country and industry benchmark trends over the past three months versus the past year.

In addition to this quantitative approach available on the Credit Analytics platform, we also offer scorecards that cover low default asset classes for PD, LGD, and point in time adjustments.

Learn More About Credit Analysis
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