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USMCA takes center stage

Energy

Power Forecast Briefing: Fleet Transformation, Under-Powered Markets, and Green Energy in 2018

Trading Of US Linear TV Advertising Shifting To Programmatic Trading

Every Industry Is Now A Technology Industry

Online Video Bolstering Consumer Home Video Spend, Spearheaded By Subscription Streaming


USMCA takes center stage

SNL Image

Source: The Associated Press

While the automotive world's attention was drawn to the flying cars and self-driving buses on display at the Paris Motor Show, perhaps more significant events were unfolding back across the pond (and it's not Elon Musk's Twitter account this time).

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ended weeks of uncertainty surrounding trade within North America. The updated NAFTA accord will have a wide-ranging impact on companies across myriad industries, none more so than carmakers.

All international car manufacturers with activities on the continent will have to reassess their supply chains and, potentially, absorb higher labor costs if they are to avoid hefty tariffs. Our analysis, which includes shipping data from Panjiva, shows that Germany's Daimler AG and Japan-based Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. stand to be particularly affected by higher requirements for content produced in North America. U.S. automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co., meanwhile, are waiting for the dust to settle to see if the deal President Donald Trump has struck is quite as good as he claims.

Chart of the week: Pork production in China

SNL Image

Automotive

Daimler, Nissan face biggest challenges under new trade deal

The new trilateral trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada creates potential challenges for foreign car manufacturers, while U.S. automakers might also face higher costs as well as some relief.

Chinese automakers look to make inroads in US, Europe

In a bid to make inroads in the U.S. and Europe, Chinese manufacturers are hoping that their range of electric vehicles will blaze a trail in markets where more stringent emissions standards would block their gasoline-powered cars. S&P Global Market Intelligence reports from the Paris Motor Show.

US auto sales weaken in September, in part due to Hurricane Florence

The likes of Ford, General Motors and Toyota posted double-digit decreases in year-over-year sales, but Fiat Chrysler bucked the trend thanks to growing demand for its Jeep and Ram brands.

Retail

Michael Kors, Tapestry shop for luxury in pursuit of growth

Michael Kors' acquisition of Italian fashion house Gianni Versace is further evidence of how New York luxury companies are following the playbook of their larger Parisian rivals.

Analysts: Growing holiday sales should buoy toy, department store sales

Despite a number of high-profile companies' struggles, retail sales in 2018 are expected to be well above the previous year's tally, according to the National Retail Federation.

Costco identifies 'material weakness' in internal financial systems

The retail giant revealed that a member of its information technology team "had access to something they shouldn't have."

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Shareholder backlash thwarts Unilever's plan to relocate HQ to the Netherlands

The prospect of Unilever being removed from the FTSE 100 index was too much for many shareholders to stomach, but the company is expected to continue to pursue a simplification of its structure through other means.

New trade deal provides some relief for US dairy, but tough problems persist

The USMCA will give U.S. dairy producers greater access to the Canadian market, but overproduction remains a concern.

Deadly swine virus disrupts China's pork industry

Throughout August and September, 22 outbreaks of the highly contagious disease were reported in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of pork.

Startup Takeoff bets on automation, small warehouses in grocery e-commerce race

Max Pedró, president and co-founder of grocery order fulfillment business Takeoff Technologies, explains the benefits of micro-fulfillment centers and the importance of increasing automation.

Exiting PepsiCo CEO Nooyi points to potential in snacks, sports drinks

"We still haven't fully exploited how snacks can be mini-meals and what we can do with the combination of our snacks and dips," said Indra Nooyi, who stepped down as CEO of PepsiCo on Oct. 2 after 12 years at the helm.

Consumer Edge is a weekly collection of critical developments across the automotive; retail; and food, beverage, and tobacco industries that draws on exclusive analysis and value-added content from the Consumer News team at S&P Global Market Intelligence.


Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: Fleet Transformation, Under-Powered Markets, and Green Energy in 2018

Steve Piper shares Power Forecast insights and a recap of recent events in the US power markets in Q4 of 2017. Watch our video for power generation trends and forecasts for utilities in 2018.


Technology, Media & Telecom
Trading Of US Linear TV Advertising Shifting To Programmatic Trading

Oct. 08 2018 — Both buyers and sellers of traditional linear TV advertising, not including connected TV or over-the-top video, are moving toward the adoption of programmatic trading. In 2017, Kagan estimates that $690 million or 0.9% of total linear TV spend was traded programmatically. Within the next five years, that figure is expected to climb to $9.76 billion or nearly 12% of total linear TV advertising revenue. MVPDs are forecast to trade the greatest percentage of their ad inventory programmatically in 2022 with 30% of ad revenue from programmatic trading.

Kagan defines programmatic trading as being automated and data-enhanced, not just one or the other. Trading may be through a private or open marketplace and does not have to be through an auction, which is more common in digital video advertising.

There are several issues holding participants back from programmatic trading. Unlike digital programmatic marketplaces, where there is a seemingly unending supply of ad inventory, linear TV has a finite supply. Demand for TV inventory exceeds the supply, so there is still an attitude of "If it isn't broken, don't fix it." TV ads are also bought well in advance, not immediately.

While many agencies have experimented with the programmatic trading of linear TV, not all are on board. Many of the advertisers and agencies are interacting directly with the supplier platform rather than going through a demand-side platform, or DSP, today. In their experiments, the agency needs to use separate platforms to aggregate inventory and tie it together, which is a lot of work.

The lack of inventory is one factor holding back programmatic trading. The only way it takes off is to make linear TV inventory available in some type of buyer platform that can combine the various supply platforms. It is even more complicated when the buyer wants to bring in connected TV (OTT).

Agencies do like the automation capabilities of programmatic, particularly where the process takes a lot of time. An algorithm may do better in areas such as weighting estimation, the first pass at scheduling and the negotiation process as well as postings and billings. The process of buying inventory is not difficult, but computing where a buyer will be able to find its preferred audience is. Therefore, interest in automating the planning and analysis to find an optimal audience is high.

We forecast a gradual uptake for programmatic trading with continued testing in 2018. Broadcast stations and networks, cable programmers, and MVPDs need to add more inventory to programmatic platforms before agencies begin using it in earnest. It will take time for all parties to feel comfortable transacting in a new way.

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Technology
Every Industry Is Now A Technology Industry

Highlights

And every company is now a technology company.

Sep. 28 2018 — As machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics become commonplace and enter the operations of mainstream organizations, leadership teams are finding that failure to harness and leverage AI puts them behind the competition. Repeatable tasks are carried out by bots in a fraction of the time and employees are more focused on adding value, which means companies on the forefront of technology can be more reliable, more user-friendly, and faster to market.

In this highly disruptive environment, one traditional truth of business has withstood, or has perhaps even guided, these technological advances: above all, the customer experience is king. More than ever before, businesses have effective technologies at their fingertips to quickly and effectively address customer pain points, while at the same time dramatically improving their internal operations.

At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we strive to get beyond the buzzwords and truly deliver essential insight. And second to this, we strive to adopt real operational efficiencies into our delivery that are paralleled by the workflow efficiencies we promise to our customers. To that end, we are committed to remaining on the cutting edge of emerging technologies, first through optimization, then automation.

Download a recent analysis of how we’re applying new technology like natural language processing to structure data, robotic process automation to deliver insights faster, and predictive analytics to stay ahead of the market.

You can also view this analysis in Spanish, Portuguese, Mandarin, and Japanese.

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Natural Language Processing – Part II: Stock Selection

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Natural Language Processing, Part I: Primer

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Technology, Media & Telecom
Online Video Bolstering Consumer Home Video Spend, Spearheaded By Subscription Streaming

Highlights

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Sep. 20 2018 — Spending on home entertainment is rising toward levels not seen since 2004, when consumers spent $24.37 billion building massive home-video libraries of DVDs and VHS cassettes. Since then, the optical-disc market saw more than a decade of significant declines as consumers shifted to digital entertainment. By 2012, total spending on home entertainment was down to $20.13 billion, with $4.13 billion coming from online video while DVDs and Blu-ray discs accounted for $12.88 billion and multichannel PPV/VOD contributed the remaining $3.13 billion.

Fast forward to 2017 and the mix of consumer spending has changed significantly. Consumers spent a total of $22.62 billion on home entertainment from multichannel, online and disc retail/rental sources. Online spending accounted for $13.00 billion of that total while spending on discs dropped to $6.84 billion and multichannel PPV/VOD shrank to $2.79 billion.

While the data might seem like good news for traditional providers of home entertainment, a key component of the growth in digital spending is the rise of subscription video on demand. The majority of online spending is going to over-the-top services like Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime, which increasingly have focused on creating original programming (mainly episodic TV) rather than licensing content from Hollywood studios.

Removing subscription streaming from the consumer spending pool paints a less favorable picture for traditional content providers. In 2012, consumers spent just $1.43 billion on non-subscription online video purchase/rental, and a total of $17.44 billion excluding the SVOD component. By 2017, while consumer spending on online video overall had risen to $13.00 billion, some $10.47 of that came from streaming subscriptions versus $2.53 billion from online video purchase/rental, and total home-entertainment spending was just $12.16 billion excluding SVOD.

Spending on sell-through home video peaked in 2006 when consumers shelled out $16.53 billion for DVDs and VHS cassettes. Since then spending has declined by hundreds of millions (sometimes billions) each year. In 2017, consumers spent $6.50 billion on DVD and Blu-ray sell-through and electronic sell-through. This seems to suggest that people are becoming less and less interested in adding to their home-video libraries and are turning to the more affordable streaming options. The story is similar for the home-video rental segment, which saw consumer spending peak in 2001 at nearly $8.45 billion before dropping to $2.87 billion by the end of 2017.

This has to be a somewhat unsettling trend for the major film studios, and is likely a key factor in shifting their strategy to focus on major franchise films and low-cost genre fare. The former tend to have broad worldwide appeal and can still move enough video units to help offset their high production and distribution costs. The low-cost genre fare, on the other hand, may be more risky and not sell as well internationally, but has a fair chance to break even. If the latter films lose money, the successful franchise films typically cover the losses.

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US Online Video Outlook To Eclipse $15B In 2018

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DVD, Blu-ray Spending Down $1B-plus For 11th Year In A Row

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