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05 December 2023 Yacine Rouimi William Farmer Theo Acheampong Rajiv Biswas Langelihle Malimela Jordan Anderson Hannah Cotillon Hafiz Noor Shams Archbold Macheka Anton Alifandi
Although El Niño tends to peak in November to February, its impact will last longer.
04 December 2023
We have identified five overlapping themes that will drive global political and economic relationships in 2024.
01 December 2023 Jose Sevilla-Macip Chris Rogers
Development of passenger infrastructure along busy cargo corridors is likely to strain automotive sector supply chains.
01 December 2023 Chris Rogers
Our analysis shows an upward inflection point in supply chain activity is close but would not fully arrive until well into 2024.
30 November 2023 Michael Ryan
Recently released data on US foreign direct investment offer new insights about the state of globalization.
27 November 2023
Homes in 29 states are unaffordable to the median household, marking the first time a majority of states have below-average affordability.
22 November 2023 Nicolas Suarez Ailsa Rosales
Guyana's economic landscape has changed drastically due to the discovery of oil.
21 November 2023 Michael Zdinak
US retail sales are on track to outpace expectations this year.
16 November 2023 Ken Wattret
The foundations of the global economic expansion are shaky as the full effects of tighter financial conditions are yet to be felt.
07 November 2023 Chris Rogers
Bill-of-lading data is particularly useful for creating supply chain network graphs.
01 November 2023 Chris Rogers
Both the pattern and level of shipments indicate trade in consoles is far from its pre-pandemic norms.
31 October 2023 Michael Zdinak
We unmask what’s scaring away US candy consumers this Halloween.
27 October 2023 Chris Rogers
The current corporate earnings season may provide signals of current and future strategies and expectations.
26 October 2023 Fran Hagarty
Texas and Arizona are likely to build on their existing semiconductor strengths, while new hubs will emerge in less traditional locales.
23 October 2023 Chris Rogers
The supply chains for gin beverages are facing falling volumes and increasing complexity.
18 October 2023 Ken Wattret
Annual global real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2.3% in 2024, with the risk of a more prolonged period of weakness increasing.
12 October 2023 Chris Rogers
While seasonality appears to be returning to normal, we see evidence of a steady process of reshoring for Christmas decorations.
09 October 2023 Turloch Mooney
Reducing negative environmental impact is one of the biggest drivers of port call optimization.
29 September 2023 Rajiv Biswas
Thailand showed a gradual economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic during 2022, with real GDP growth having risen from 1.5% in 2021 to 2.6%...
28 September 2023 Chris Rogers
Industrial and trade policies will remain in focus in 2023, with an emphasis on tariff-related interventions and protectionism challenges.
28 September 2023 Chris Williamson
Post-webinar Q&A - Q3 Economies in Flux: Drive Decisions with the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™)
25 September 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon
We are watching two developments that pose potentially significant downside risks to our forecast of GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
20 September 2023 Ken Wattret
The near-term outlook for inflation has deteriorated as crude oil prices have risen.
18 September 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon
While price inflation is slowing, it is doubtful that slowing can be sustained unless wage growth moderates significantly.
18 September 2023 Chris Rogers
Apple Inc.’s iPhone and Watch updates this year come with important supply chain considerations, including steps to reduce carbon emissions.
14 September 2023 Deepa Kumar
The signing of a Leaders’ Declaration will be presented by India as evidence of its ability to bridge advanced and emerging economies.
13 September 2023 John Raines Emily Crowley Chris Rogers Ben Herzon
The current political and economic conditions increase the odds of a longer strike.
11 September 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon
The economy is growing significantly above its sustainable trend of roughly 1¾% to 2%.
08 September 2023 Chris Rogers
The EU's Deforestation Regulation brings significant new supply chain reporting requirements across the food, building materials, home/personal...
30 August 2023 Lilit Gevorgyan
The ruble's exchange rate is likely to remain volatile, and the central bank's monetary policy is unlikely to shield the currency fully.
29 August 2023 Chris Rogers
Retailers are preparing for Halloween sales earlier than ever, leading to earlier shipments of products than in prior years.
28 August 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon
The risks remain tilted toward a further tightening of financial conditions.
24 August 2023 Michael Dall
Potential disruption in natural gas and lumber production sends overall prices higher last week.
22 August 2023 Ken Wattret
Policy rate cuts in advanced economies are not forecast until mid-2024, while in emerging economies, such cuts are underway.
21 August 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon
Given tight labor markets, strong momentum in GDP entering the second half, and inflation that is still too high, it is very likely we will see...
21 August 2023 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman
Results from Argentina’s presidential primaries indicate weaker traditional parties and increasing likelihood of currency policy change
17 August 2023 Michael Dall
Weak global demand remains the significant downward pressure on commodity prices.
16 August 2023 Ralf Wiegert Jamil Naayem Jack A. Kennedy Ana Melica
The UAE has signed trade pacts with countries including India, Indonesia and Turkey that are likely to boost economic growth.
15 August 2023
Will the US be able to secure sufficient supply of the minerals needed for its move toward net zero?
14 August 2023 Chris Rogers
There's plenty of evidence of reshoring over the past five years, but success in the future is by no means guaranteed.
14 August 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon
US Weekly Economic Commentary: Immaculate disinflation?
11 August 2023 Michael Zdinak Chris Rogers
Back to school shopping data is in. How does it stack up to last year?
09 August 2023 Chris Rogers
Elevated temperatures globally have increased the use of air conditioning for home and office, raising demand for machinery and maintenance services....
04 August 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in August
04 August 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon
Monthly US GDP has strong momentum heading into the third quarter.
31 July 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon
Several indicators came in as good or better than expected and leaned toward supporting strong growth ahead.
28 July 2023 Michael Dall
Energy price rises offset chemical declines as the MPI moves sideways
28 July 2023 Deepa Kumar Chris Rogers
India's rice restrictions come amid concerns around domestic price inflation resulting from food supply chain disruptions.
25 July 2023 Shuchita Shukla Michal Plochec Dragana Ignjatovic David Vagenknecht
We forecast benchmark rate cuts across the region by early 2024, ahead of the ECB pivot expected in June 2024.
25 July 2023 Anton Alifandi Agnieszka Maciejewska
We assess the risk outlook for companies considering Southeast Asia as a China Plus One destination, focusing on the six biggest economies.
25 July 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon
The resilience of the economy suggests that two more Fed rate hikes will be needed to wrestle inflation back to the Fed’s target quickly.
25 July 2023 Ken Wattret
While S&P Global Market Intelligence’s global real GDP growth forecast for 2023 is unchanged at 2.4%, this masks regional divergence.
21 July 2023 Langelihle Malimela Jessica Leyland Jack A. Kennedy Deepa Kumar Alex Kokcharov
Ukraine is likely to use force to halt Russian Black Sea exports unless Russia returns to the grain agreement.
19 July 2023 Chris Rogers
The FIFA Women's World Cup has contributed to the rapid growth in demand for footballs (soccer balls).
18 July 2023 Langelihle Malimela Deepa Kumar Carlos Caicedo Alex Kokcharov
The summit is highly likely to be dominated by urgent problems faced by existing members.
17 July 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon
Consumer prices and producer prices continued to moderate through June.
11 July 2023 Anja Heimann
S&P Global Market Intelligence expects a further deterioration in house price momentum in the coming quarters.
10 July 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Labor data is going in the opposite direction from what would be required to see core price inflation decline sustainably to the Fed’s target....
10 July 2023 Lindsay Newman Alex Kokcharov
NATO’s 31 member states and candidate country Sweden are meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 11-12. Their agenda is packed.
07 July 2023 Jamil Naayem Jack Kennedy
The Gulf economy will feel the pinch of lower oil output in the near term, but the non-oil sector will support regional growth performances. ...
06 July 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July.
06 July 2023
The MPI fell 2% last week with large chemical price declines leading the retreat.
30 June 2023 Yacine Rouimi
The eurozone has yet to experience the full impact of high interest rates on economic activity and demand.
29 June 2023 John Raines Deepa Kumar
Areas of mutual interest will be the primary drivers of bilateral cooperation while sidestepping areas of divergence.
29 June 2023 Chris Rogers
Globally tennis balls face supply chain labor rule violations, carbon footprint challenges and recycling issues.
28 June 2023 Chris Rogers
Supply chains are almost back to normal in terms of activity, inventories and seasonality.
27 June 2023 Jessica Leyland Andrew Birch
What does President Erdogan’s victory mean for Turkey, the region and the world?
26 June 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Ongoing gains in employment and an easing of mortgage rates are among factors supporting housing activity.
23 June 2023 Sara Johnson
Economic performance will vary across sectors and regions, with Europe and the Americas experiencing sluggish growth and parts of Asia-Pacific...
23 June 2023 Chris Rogers
A critical minerals agreement could give UK exporters eligibility under the US Inflation Reduction Act funding for electric vehicle components....
22 June 2023 Michael Dall
The MPI increased last week with volatile energy markets center stage
22 June 2023 Chris Rogers
The US Inflation Reduction Act might not lead to significant investments in new mining capacity in the US.
20 June 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Disinflation has stalled, with inflation remaining unacceptably above the Fed’s long-term 2% objective.
16 June 2023 Rajiv Biswas
Taiwan’s export-driven economy has continued to be hit by slumping exports, which fell by 16.9% year-on-year (y/y) in the first five months of...
15 June 2023 Michael Dall
Our MPI shows prices increase as metal markets grow more optimistic on mainland China’s growth
14 June 2023 Joel Prakken
Is the impact of the spending caps in the FRA big enough to restrain economic growth significantly over the following years?
12 June 2023 Lindsay Newman Alex Kokcharov
The Group of Seven (G7) came together in May conveying a message of unity in the midst of broader volatility.
08 June 2023 Michael Dall
Commodity prices fall despite the positive resolution of the US debt ceiling stand-off per our MPI
08 June 2023 Alisa Strobel
Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that aspire to benefit from investment in critical minerals extraction, face blockages to development...
07 June 2023 Chris Rogers
Reshoring and inventory management strategy changes are expensive for many industries.
06 June 2023 Chris Rogers
Supply chain managers are emerging from a period of upheaval and now have to make decisions over their long-term supply chain structures.
05 June 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Recent news from the labor market must be more than a little troubling to Fed policy makers.
05 June 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in June
05 June 2023 Gauri Jauhar Deepa Kumar Ashima Tyagi
Recent global events have prompted India to recalibrate its geopolitical strategy as it focuses on manufacturing to manifest its ambitions.
02 June 2023 Ken Wattret
S&P Global Market Intelligence addresses a series of key questions related to inflation trends in the eurozone.
01 June 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.4% in April.
01 June 2023 Michael Dall
Materials prices continue to fall amid a concerned market per our MPI
30 May 2023 Chris Rogers
Cost-optimizing strategies for supply chains involve making determinations on the number, scale and location of suppliers.
26 May 2023 Yasmine Ghozzi
With a short-lived breather from elevated inflation, we expect prices to accelerate in May.
24 May 2023 Ronel Oberholzer Ana Souto
The sub-Sahara African real estate market is less extended and more reliant on informal options, reducing the threat of sharp downside corrections...
22 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
X-date may arrive before the FOMC meeting next month, with the potential to shift the views of the Committee away from its tightening bias.
22 May 2023 Sara Johnson
The global economic expansion will proceed at a moderate pace, led by service sectors.
19 May 2023 John Raines
Our baseline forecast remains that the White House and congressional leadership will complete a last-minute negotiated compromise.
19 May 2023 Michael Dall
Commodity prices fall last week as inflation outlook worsens - per our MPI
15 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We saw little new data last week to influence our expectation that real GDP will decline 0.1% in the second quarter.
15 May 2023 Shuchita Shukla Dragana Ignjatovic Anja Heimann
Political will from existing and aspiring members will be more decisive than the Maastricht criteria in the eurozone accession timelines.
11 May 2023 Jingyi Pan
Latest S&P Global Investment Manager Index data revealed that risk sentiment rests at a survey record low in May
11 May 2023 Karl Kuykendall
The traditional US automotive belt that spans from the Midwest to the Southeast has taken a huge slice of the investment pie to date.
10 May 2023 Lindsay Newman
The defining feature of the geopolitical era unfolding around us is an accelerating interdependence between economic and security spheres.
08 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The Federal Reserve may have still more work to do if things don’t change pretty quickly.
08 May 2023 Martin Roberts
Requirements that companies commit to greater local content and domestic processing of resources are likely in the one- to three-year outlook....
05 May 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May.
05 May 2023 Thomas McCartin
Elevated materials prices continue to normalize as supply remains adequate to meet current demand levels
05 May 2023 Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima
The current rate is significantly high and lagged effects of previous monetary tightening by Brazil’s central bank will continue to work.
04 May 2023 Shuchita Shukla
Further disbursements to Romania under the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility hinge on the government passing contentious reforms.
01 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The expected softness in the second quarter leaves open the possibility that the US will slip into recession by midyear.
28 April 2023 Michael Dall
Prices down last week as Eurozone manufacturing data disappoints - per our MPI
27 April 2023 Todd C. Lee Ronel Oberholzer Rajiv Biswas Patrick Newport Diego Iscaro Anja Heimann
Tightening monetary conditions are driving a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024.
25 April 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Last week was a busy one for “soft” data and results from several surveys painted a mixed picture of economic conditions.
24 April 2023 Sara Johnson
World real GDP projected to increase 2.3% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024
20 April 2023 Jessica Leyland Andrew Birch
We examine potential electoral scenarios and their policy implications over a 12-month outlook from the election date.
20 April 2023 Michael Dall
Prices were down last week as markets await further interest rate rises.
18 April 2023 Veronica Retamales Burford Johanna Marris Carla Selman
Chile and Peru face the challenge of rapidly expanding the output capacity amid regulatory and political uncertainty.
18 April 2023 Jamil Naayem
Robust Q4 economic activity lifted real GDP growth to close to 4.8% in 2022, a level unseen since the middle of the last decade.
17 April 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
New data on sales encouraged us to revise up our estimate of first-quarter real PCE growth to a very robust 4.8% (annualized).
12 April 2023 Jose Sevilla-Macip
Discretionary government use of the proposed legal tools for political purposes would entail a significant increase in contract uncertainty.
10 April 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
There is rough sledding ahead; we just can’t say for sure where the bumps and valleys are.
07 April 2023 Michael Dall
Commodity prices supported last week by hope banking crises will be contained - insights from our MPI
06 April 2023 Alejandro DuranCarrete Ailsa Rosales
Brazil–China trade seminar generates multiple agreements to deepen bilateral business links
06 April 2023 Fran Hagarty
Continued inflationary challenges and the exhaustion of federal stimulus will limit rainy day fund growth in the near term
05 April 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in April
05 April 2023 Diego Iscaro Anja Heimann
High inflation and a tight labor market in the eurozone will drive nominal wage growth higher in the short term.
03 April 2023 Thea Fourie Ronel Oberholzer Archbold Macheka Anton Casteleijn Alisa Strobel
Dwindling external buffers raise sub-Saharan African currency depreciation risks, but capital controls unlikely.
03 April 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in February
03 April 2023 Shuchita Shukla
The challenge for 2023 is to increase the absorption of refugees in the Baltic labor markets.
30 March 2023 Kevjn Lim
Single-day strikes have by now affected most of the economy and will likely become protracted if dialogue fails.
30 March 2023 Diego Iribarren Cassandra Pagan
The world’s seaports are one of the global economy’s principal vulnerabilities as they can act as enablers of shocks that may spread globally....
27 March 2023 Lawrence Nelson Juan Turcios Joel Prakken Akshat Goel
The Fed acknowledged that a contraction of credit emanating from banking sector turmoil was likely to create new headwinds for the economy.
27 March 2023 Shuchita Shukla
Czechia and Romania represent the two ends of CEE-4 GDP performance last year, reflecting their relative external exposures.
24 March 2023 Hannah Cotillon Angus Lam
The initial IMF disbursement will provide temporary relief but austerity measures will be unpopular
24 March 2023 Chris Williamson
Eurozone economic growth accelerated to a ten-month high in March according to the latest flash PMI survey data
24 March 2023 Thea Fourie
In 2023, growth in sub-Saharan Africa will slow further on the expectation of weaker global growth.
24 March 2023 Brian Lawson
A look at the bond market impacts of recent banking sector instability.
23 March 2023 Michael Dall
Financial sector woes spread to commodity markets last week as seen in our MPI
21 March 2023 Sara Johnson
Actions by central banks and regulators to provide liquidity and broaden deposit insurance will likely avert a major financial crisis, but the...
20 March 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Recent financial turbulence is reflecting uncertainty about the underlying health of the banking system, casting a shadow over the value of assets...
20 March 2023 Paula Diosquez-Rice
For the next two political terms, Argentina’s next two governments will face heavy external debt service requirements.
16 March 2023 Raj Badiani
Housing market activity and prices will come under persistent pressure during 2023.
16 March 2023 Kevjn Lim Jack A. Kennedy
The agreement likely reflects a wider attempt by Saudi leadership to reset perceptions of Saudi Arabia as a stabilizing actor in the region.
16 March 2023 Michael Dall
Equity sell-off not enough to stop commodity price rises last week per our MPI
15 March 2023 William Farmer
Resuming the issuance of PPAs and deprioritizing contract renegotiations aligns with the government’s aim to increase foreign direct investment....
14 March 2023 Chris Varvares
With inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target, we should expect increases in the policy rate to continue.
10 March 2023 Kevjn Lim
We identify seven tripwires that would indicate that a collapse in Iran’s nuclear talks was becoming more likely.
09 March 2023 Michael Dall
Official data offered few signals for future growth and limited price movement per our MPI
09 March 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in March
07 March 2023 Ken Wattret
Soaring alternative inflation metrics cement the case for additional 50bp rate hikes for the EU
06 March 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The risk of an imminent recession has receded, and the risk of imbedded high inflation has risen.
02 March 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in January.
02 March 2023 Michael Dall
Strong US inflation data concerns traders but mainland China optimism remains
01 March 2023 Thea Fourie Nezo Sobekwa Langelihle Malimela Evan Burger
The mining, agriculture, automobile, and energy sectors, all of which are heavy users of water, are likely to be impacted.
27 February 2023 Jessica Leyland Andrew Birch
Outside of the vast human and social impacts of the earthquake, the biggest national economic impact will be on the fiscal deficit.
27 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The odds of recession beginning in the first half of 2023 have receded somewhat over the last few weeks.
23 February 2023 Michael Dall
Worst-case scenario in European energy markets is avoided which is helping to lower commodity prices
22 February 2023 Sara Johnson
The global economic outlook has brightened, with the major economies showing resilience in early 2023. However, persistent core inflation will...
21 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We revised up our tracking forecast for first-quarter US GDP growth, following a huge increase in retail sales and food services in January.
16 February 2023 Michael Dall
The much-anticipated resurgence in Mainland China manufacturing remains elusive
16 February 2023 Petya Barzilska Jan Gerhard Dijedon Imeri Blanka Kolenikova
The EU is building tools to allow greater public control in situations of severe supply chain disruptions.
13 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Financial markets are pricing in doubt that the FOMC will push its policy rate as high, or for as long, as Fed communications suggest.
10 February 2023 Alex Kokcharov
Ukraine’s ability to counter a likely Russian offensive in the coming months and resist the Russian air campaign will hinge on military assistance....
10 February 2023 Rajiv Biswas Pollyanna De Lima Petya Barzilska Ling-Wei Chung Laura Denman John Raines Hannah Cotillon Brian Lawson
Public policy initiatives, driven by supply chain and national security concerns, will change the global configuration of the semiconductor sector....
09 February 2023 Michael Dall
Falling energy prices continue and weaker demand remains the major influence on commodity markets
08 February 2023 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in February.
07 February 2023 Steven Frable Karl Kuykendall Fran Hagarty
This coming US recession will have less of a regional theme than past ones given its mild nature and broad-based drivers.
06 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The latest economic data hint at the possibility that the US might avoid rolling over into a (mild) recession as soon as the first quarter.
06 February 2023 Alisa Strobel
Sub-Saharan Africa is achieving the fastest adoption rates for blockchain technology globally.
03 February 2023 Bibianna Norek
The risk of violence during protests is likely to be highest in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany.
02 February 2023 Rob Marshall
Our case study underlines the danger that companies may be overstating the business risks associated with renewable energy investments in emerging...
01 February 2023
Falling energy prices define the commodity landscape this week, leading to a decline in the MPI
30 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Underlying demand growth is weak, supporting our expectation that GDP growth will turn negative in early 2023.
30 January 2023 Arlene Kish
The Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines throughout this year before it even contemplates cutting interest rates.
26 January 2023
Gains in chemicals and lumber pushed commodity prices slightly higher for the second consecutive week
25 January 2023 Sara Johnson
World real GDP is now projected to increase 1.9% in 2023, up from last month’s forecast of 1.6% growth.
23 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
There has been a notable weakening in consumer demand for goods as reflected in retail sales.
20 January 2023 Jose Sevilla-Macip
The focus on semiconductors and critical minerals during the recent summit emphasized the nearshoring opportunities for Mexico.
17 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect continued declines in both headline and core inflation, consistent with our forecast for a mild recession this year.
13 January 2023 Vaiva Seckute
Sectors with longer supply chains are likely to remain vulnerable to disruptions.
12 January 2023 Michael Dall
Falling energy prices and demand concerns send prices slightly lower last week
09 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We have revised up our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth by nearly two percentage points since Dec. 23.
06 January 2023 Natasha McSwiggan Alyssa Grzelak
As expected, despite an overhang of risk from the pandemic, global banking sectors again avoided major crises in 2022. Starting 2023, however...
04 January 2023 Thomas McCartin
Unseasonably warm weather to round out 2022 in Europe and the US relieves natural gas markets.
04 January 2023 Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.4% in November.
04 January 2023 Yacine Rouimi Vaiva Seckute Todd C. Lee Thea Fourie Sharon Fisher Sara Johnson Rajiv Biswas Ken Wattret John Anton Joel Prakken Jeannine Cataldi Emily Crowley Chris Varvares Bree Neff Alyssa Grzelak
Central banks' efforts to subdue inflation will dominate the economic landscape in 2023, producing a pronounced slowdown in global economic growth....
20 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima Paula Diosquez-Rice Jose Sevilla-Macip Johanna Marris Claudia Wehbe Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Alejandro DuranCarrete Ailsa Rosales
2023 will be marked by economic deceleration, the consolidation of the political left, higher fiscal burden, and greater business disruption...
19 December 2022 Jamil Naayem
MENA’s real GDP growth will likely slow in 2023, as the region’s economies are not immune to weakening global demand and tightening financial...
19 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect that PCE growth will slow to a crawl early next year, as the economy rolls over into what will likely be a mild recession.
19 December 2022 Brian Lawson
Debt market conditions are improving for riskier asset classes, indicated by both aggregate and issuer-specific factors.
16 December 2022 Michael Dall
Gradual lifting of Chinese COVID-19 restrictions support commodities
14 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
ESG-related scrutiny will significantly increase for projects in Latin America, especially for ESG-oriented lenders or investors with a focus...
12 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Easing of financial conditions since October and the firmness of recent real data suggest a delay in the onset of recession to early 2023.
12 December 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December.
09 December 2022 Phil Smith Marie Lechler, Ph.D.
We expect London GDP to grow 5.0% year-on-year in 2022, outstripping all other areas of the UK and widening regional inequalities.
08 December 2022 Michael Dall
A European cold snap and loosening Chinese COVID-19 restrictions support commodities
05 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes beginning this month and to raise the target for the federal funds rate over the next several...
02 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip Johanna Marris Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
Extreme weather events such as water stress, floods, and droughts have led to additional operational challenges in Latin America.
01 December 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
Monthly US GDP rose 0.3% in October
01 December 2022 Thomas McCartin
Cooler sentiment over the outlook for mainland China’s relaxation of zero-Covid policy has pulled prices lower after the previous week’s increase...
29 November 2022 Vaiva Seckute
Across Europe residential real estate prices have been rising amid low interest rates, boosting affordability and making investments in real...
29 November 2022 Ken Matheny Juan Turcios Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth to a 0.8% annual rate, reflecting sizeable increases in orders and shipments of capital...
29 November 2022 Sara Johnson
We project global real GDP growth to slow from 5.9% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023.
22 November 2022 Lindsay Newman
five organizing themes that will drive the economic and risk environment in 2023: global security unsettled, energy trade-offs, precarious supply...
21 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Largely on the resiliency in US retail sales, we revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth by 0.7 percentage point to +0.4%.
21 November 2022 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
India’s ambition to increase its economic power is unlikely to be limited to encouraging foreign investor participation.
17 November 2022 Michael Dall
Our MPI signals that better news on US inflation and easing Chinese COVID-19 restrictions boost markets
17 November 2022 Jingyi Pan
November flash PMI data will be eagerly awaited in the coming week to shed light on inflation, employment trends and risks of recession in the...
16 November 2022 Michael Zdinak Chris Varvares Akshat Goel
US holiday sales will grow a solid 4.5% in 2022, above the pre-pandemic average of 3.9% and well below the lofty rates seen in recent years.
14 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The better-than-expected US Consumer Price Index report for October supports a downshift in the pace of Fed rate hikes in December.
14 November 2022 Rajiv Biswas Jingyi Pan
An assortment of data releases packs the week ahead including US and China’s retail sales and industrial production figures.
08 November 2022 Michael Dall
Weak global construction prospects spark latest sell-off
08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
Latin American and African representatives are likely to frame water scarcity as a global issue affecting food security to obtain financing commitments....
08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
The Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted energy supply in the EU and forced a near-term policy divergence between energy security and...
08 November 2022 Alisa Strobel
More sub-Saharan African countries are likely to seek further debt restructuring as foreign exchange shortages rise.
07 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Demand has softened, and we continue to expect a weak fourth quarter with US GDP contracting slightly, marking the start of a recession.
07 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
The conflict in Ukraine is likely to further deviate the timeline for meeting the targets of limiting temperature rise and reaching net-zero...
07 November 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Hugo Foster
Planners who are in the dark about local economic activity could look at where the lights are on for insights into local economic and industry...
07 November 2022 Karl Kuykendall Heather Upton Dave Iaia
With US mid-terms elections this week, our US regional team explores the critical economic issues motivating voters in swing states
03 November 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November
02 November 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.1% in September.
02 November 2022 Michael Dall
From our MPI: Lower demand for natural gas in Europe pushes prices down
01 November 2022 Ken Wattret
Energy shortages due to unusually cold weather could lead to much deeper near-term output contractions than forecast.
31 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We revised up our US forecast of fourth-quarter GDP growth by 0.4 percentage point, but we still show the US economy contracting at a 0.7% annual...
28 October 2022 Ralf Wiegert Jamil Naayem
The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are expected to experience healthy total construction growth in 2022 and 2023.
27 October 2022 Ronel Oberholzer
Amid increasing concerns over unsustainable debt levels in many African countries, Ghana's default risk has increased.
26 October 2022 Michael Dall
Politburo meeting fails to boost market sentiment
25 October 2022 Brian Lawson
Emerging market supply remains strong for investment-grade issuers, but debt restructuring issues are affecting several sub-Saharan countries...
25 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Manufacturing activity expanded in September, while contraction has intensified in the U.S. housing sector.
24 October 2022 Akshat Goel
Parents are expected to spend $3.2 billion on candy this Halloween — a record amount, which works out to about $25 per household.
21 October 2022 Michael Dall
Despite last week’s commodity price increase, weak demand will dominate pricing in the near term.
17 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The Fed will be forced to raise interest rates to support tight financial conditions and a softening in demand in pursuit of lower inflation....
13 October 2022 Michael Dall
Per our MPI, improving gas market fundamentals pull commodity prices lower
13 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson John Raines
US midterm elections represent a referendum on the president. Issues weighing down the president’s approval rating include inflation and immigration....
11 October 2022 Karl Kuykendall
Many US residents and businesses left high-cost coastal cities during the pandemic for lower-cost southern and Mountain locations.
10 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect US labor markets to ease in coming quarters as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates
06 October 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in October including: China, Ghana, and...
06 October 2022 Michael Dall
Market confidence low as borrowing costs soar and buyers take flight
06 October 2022 Sergio A. Hernandez Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima Paula Diosquez-Rice Carlos Caicedo Ailsa Rosales
The likely need for a wide coalition, regardless of who wins the election, will prevent sharp changes in policy and would slow down structural...
05 October 2022 James C. Kelly
Hurricane Ian, a category 4 hurricane that hit southwest Florida in late September will shave 1.5–2.0 percentage points off Florida’s Q3 GDP...
04 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect outright declines in real US GDP beginning as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.
04 October 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, US monthly GDP rose 0.8% in August.
29 September 2022 Michael Dall
Market confidence hit by further aggressive interest rate hikes as shown in the MPI
28 September 2022 Bree Neff Anton Alifandi
Protests in Indonesia are not supported by major political parties and are unlikely to transform into wider discontent with the government. ...
28 September 2022 Raj Badiani
The UK must borrow money to fund its tax cuts, triggering turmoil in financial markets and uncertainty in the inflation fight.
27 September 2022 Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Anton Johanna Marris
The surge in demand for critical minerals creates opportunities for companies and exacerbates regulatory and operational risks.
27 September 2022 Scott Hazelton Marie Lechler, Ph.D.
Our regional data and country risk scores help investors pinpoint attractive locations for construction projects.
26 September 2022 Ken Matheny Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect the US recession to be mild by historical standards. The unemployment rate is likely to rise by several percentage points.
22 September 2022 Sara Johnson
Tightening financial conditions will lead to a further slowdown in global economic growth, putting expansions in vulnerable regions at risk and...
21 September 2022 Thomas McCartin
Commodity prices marked a slight increase last week with a mixed bag between subcomponents
19 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We lowered our forecast of third-quarter US GDP growth as data suggested less growth of personal consumption expenditures.
15 September 2022 Michael Dall
Market sentiment hit by big interest rate hikes - MPI highlights increasing anxiety
12 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect US GDP growth to improve to sluggish rates in the third and fourth quarters. We don’t expect much improvement in growth in 2023.
08 September 2022 Michael Dall
Prospects for slower demand continue to weigh on commodity prices, with data last week further harming market sentiment.
08 September 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in September.
06 September 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Labor demand is still very strong and labor markets are extraordinarily tight.
06 September 2022 Carla Selman
As a result of the Chilean referendum, a new constitutional process is likely to delay the implementation of President Boric’s agenda
02 September 2022 Chris Suckling
Hydropower, manufacturing, and automotive sectors pushed the highest increases CRP
02 September 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, US GDP rose 0.4% in July.
30 August 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Fresh data suggest that the US economy did not enter a recession in the first half. We anticipate the US will avoid an outright recession.
25 August 2022 Jordan Anderson
Outbreak of major fighting near southern Tigray increases risk of wider conflict resuming in northern Ethiopia
25 August 2022 Theo Acheampong Thea Fourie Martin Roberts Langelihle Malimela Jordan Anderson
We discuss political developments and the potential for social unrest in select sub-Saharan African countries over the next six months
24 August 2022 Michael Dall
MPI increases as traders scramble for natural gas supply before winter season
24 August 2022 Sara Johnson
Global inflation is expected to moderate in 2023 and 2024. The global economy is expected to achieve a soft landing with real GDP averaging 2.5%...
16 August 2022 Rajiv Biswas
More youthful demographic profiles in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam will drive rapid growth in consumption.
11 August 2022 Michael Dall
MPI decreases as interest rate rises hit investor confidence
10 August 2022 Sara Johnson
Global recessions are typically characterized by the depth, breadth, and duration of a decline in economic activity. Are we there?
08 August 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in August.
04 August 2022 Michael Dall
MPI increases after Russia announces cuts to European gas flows
02 August 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in June.
02 August 2022 Yacine Rouimi Michael Ryan Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro
EU member states are expected to embark on national campaigns to reduce gas consumption in the household and commercial sectors.
01 August 2022 Joel Prakken
In Q1 US real GDP declined but real GDI grew 1.8%. What do these numbers tell us about the direction of of economy?
28 July 2022 Hannah Cotillon Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch
Countries with similarly weak economic fundamentals or poor economic policies have reduced resilience to external shocks, like inflation.
27 July 2022 Michael Dall
MPI drops for sixth week in a row as price correction continues
27 July 2022 Lindsay Newman
Recent events (Russia-Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 pandemic, China’s COVID containment measures and Brexit) crystallize that pressure points in...
26 July 2022 Rafael Amiel Jose Sevilla-Macip Emily Crowley
Materialization of the nearshoring potential across sectors including critical minerals would significantly improve Mexico’s economic standing....
25 July 2022 Todd Lee John Raines Chris Williamson Chris Varvares Amanda Eglinton
Concerns about stagflation have emerged because high inflation is widespread and growth is slowing in some markets. Here’s what we’re watching....
25 July 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economy is projected to resume growth despite the risk of recession remains high in major economies due to accelerating monetary policy...
20 July 2022 Michael Dall
Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down
18 July 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
in France, regional inequities are expected to grow over the next 5 years. Will this play a role in the upcoming elections?
18 July 2022 Olivier Beaufils Mohsen Bonakdarpour Keerti Rajan John Mothersole Frank Hoffman Daniel Yergin, Ph.D.
The goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach unless massive new copper supply comes online in a timely...
15 July 2022 Brian Lawson
Issuance has been reduced over the last two weeks by the 4 July holiday and adverse US inflation data: despite some positive events, conditions...
13 July 2022 Tal Dickstein
Insights from our MPI: Lumber and energy prices rise while most other commodity prices drop.
13 July 2022 Joel Prakken
inflation in the US is intolerably high, unemployment unsustainably low, and inflation expectations have crept worrisomely above the Federal...
11 July 2022 Thea Fourie
A global recession could prove more challenging for the SSA region this time around, with fewer tailwinds and buffers to avoid sluggish growth....
05 July 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July.
04 July 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.1% in May.
01 July 2022 Thomas McCartin
Natural gas prices jump again but most other commodity prices drop.
27 June 2022 Yating Xu Todd C. Lee Lei Yi David Li
Mainland China’s zero-Covid policy has exacted heavy tolls on the economy
23 June 2022 Michael Dall
Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down
23 June 2022 Yacine Rouimi Ken Wattret
An intensification of energy and monetary policy-related headwinds would raise the likelihood of recession in Europe.
22 June 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economic climate is shifting rapidly in June, putting forecasters on recession watch.
16 June 2022 Brian Lawson
The European Central Bank held an unscheduled meeting on 15 June after expectations of tighter monetary policy in both the US and EU pushed peripheral...
15 June 2022 Michael Dall
Prices increase again but markets remain uncertain per our Weekly Pricing Pulse
14 June 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
US inflation concerns led to a further tightening of financial conditions in the week ending June 10. An interest rate hike is on the horizon....
10 June 2022 Ken Wattret
At face value, the eurozone’s real GDP growth rates in Q1 were encouraging but a closer inspection of the expenditure data paints a much less...
10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro
The proposed acceleration of the energy transition will require larger and faster investment, and the availability of funding will be key.
10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan Kevjn Lim Ken Wattret John Raines Jessica Leyland Jack Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Alyssa Grzelak
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, we are seeing increased supply chain issues and the lingering effects of China’s Covid policy.
09 June 2022 Michael Dall
Prices increase after another eventful week on commodity markets
07 June 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Thea Fourie Jeremy Smith Brian Lawson
CAR became the second country globally, after El Salvador, to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. A look at the operational challenges
03 June 2022 Brian Lawson
Our latest report focuses on a selective revival in larger share sales and new sovereign issuance in the Green Bond Market.
02 June 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in June.
01 June 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in April.
27 May 2022 Michael Dall
Better news from mainland China on COVID-19 send commodity prices higher
