29 Dec 2022 | 13:58 UTC
French nuclear output to start 2023 at record low amid long-term outages, fuel savings stops
Highlights
Output in 2022 seen around 278 TWh, down 23% on year
December output ramped up, but down 10% on year
At least six reactors offline for year-end fuel savings
French nuclear output is set to start 2023 at a record low with at least six reactors offline over the holiday period due to short fuel savings outages and 12 reactors unavailable owing to long-term outages, system data showed Dec. 29.
Output on Dec. 29 fell below 30 GW amid some negative hourly prices across Europe for early morning hours, data by grid operator RTE showed.
Annual output for 2022 is on track for 278 TWh, the lowest on record for the current fleet and about 23%, or 82 TWh, down from 2021.
S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts 2023 output to rebound by around 17% to 324 TWh, according to its Dec. 21 report on European electricity markets.
Operator EDF ramped up output sharply in the first half of December as cold weather boosted demand with output reaching 42 GW on Dec. 17.
Overall, December is on track to average just below 38 GW, down only 10% on the year compared with 29% and 34% declines in November and October.
Bearish end to 2022
The swing to mild and windy weather over the year-end holiday season prompted EDF to schedule a short modulation outage to save fuel for at least six reactors.
Day-ahead power prices for Dec. 30 delivery settled at Eur18.48/MWh, the lowest in 2022, Epex Spot data showed.
Tricastin 4, Bugey 4 and Chinon 2 were taken offline Dec. 23, while Tricastin 1, Cruas 1 and St Laurent 2 were set to stop Dec. 29 until early 2023.
"The planning and duration of this unavailability for modulation supply will be reassessed, and the plants will be restarted depending on economic conditions," EDF said in generic transparency notes.
The real challenge for EDF, however, is long-term outages linked to stress corrosion issues with five reactors -- Civaux 1 and 2, Chooz 1 and 2 and Penly 1-- being offline since 2021.
Civaux 1 is scheduled to return first on Jan. 15.
Nine reactors are scheduled to start 2023 maintenance in January and February with St Laurent 1 first to come offline on Jan. 21.
French year-ahead baseload power ended 2022 little changed overall at Eur271.73/MWh compared with Eur262.78/MWh on Dec. 28, 2021, EEX exchange data showed, with France maintaining a premium over all its neighbors due to the ongoing underperformance of its nuclear fleet.