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September 2018

Global Credit Outlook

Escalating trade tensions – especially between the U.S. and China - ratchet up risks after a historic run of benign conditions, expanding leverage moves the credit cycle further into extra innings and capital outflow pressures squeeze emerging markets

01Global highlights

While global credit conditions remain broadly favorable, an escalating trade battle between the U.S. and its trading partners, notably China, in the form of billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs are dragging down global investor confidence, threatening spending, and economic growth. It’s still unclear whether all involved parties will negotiate new trade terms or retaliate into an all-out trade war. Whatever the case, the actions thus far have infused broad uncertainty about the outlook for international trade and whether it will continue to be a lever that drives growth for the global economy.

02 What's changed
03 Risks to watch
04 Financing focus
05 Economic trends
06 Sector credit themes