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Global Trade

2020 Outlook: It’s About Time – The Future for Global Supply Chains

The past 10 years have seen a recovery in growth of trade after the great recession with a 4.4% annual growth in global exports. The decade saw the rise of China past the U.S. as a trader in goods, while the rise of populism versus globalization accelerated with the arrival of the Trump administration’s trade war with China. The restructuring of global supply chains has accelerated as a result.

Looking ahead there’s a mixture of short- and long-timeframe risks and opportunities to consider.

Come for the Commitments, Stay for the Enforcement – Trade War Show Season 4 Begins

What is the U.S. committing to?

What’s China committing to?

What’s the impact on supply chains?

Learn more about the U.S. & China trade deal

Commodities

S&P Global Platts 2020 Outlook

This digital report showcases views from S&P Global Platts Analytics on key trends that will unfold in sectors such as oil, gas, power, coal, petrochemicals and agriculture. The interactive timeline allows you to explore the news events that will shape 2020, while S&P Global Platts president Martin Fraenkel also talks through his five commodity themes to watch.

S&P Global Platts President Martin Fraenkel lays out his five themes to focus on in commodity markets in 2020. The landscape for commodity markets is marked by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic concerns, rangebound commodity prices and rising consumer awareness of climate change. As we look ahead to 2020, we think the year will bring some of these themes into even sharper focus.

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Global Structured Finance Outlook 2020

Another $1 Trillion-Plus Year On Tap

Despite concerns over slowing global macroeconomic growth, 2019 was an active year in the structured finance markets, with over $1.1 trillion issued across the globe, up nearly 10% on a year-over-year basis. By country/region, the U.S., China, Australia, and Latin America all printed higher new issue volumes, while Europe, Japan, and Canada were down modestly.

Looking into 2020, our baseline macroeconomic view is broadly neutral, but with risks weighted to the downside--a precarious balance. Some factors that could have knock-on effects for structured finance credit and issuance are global trade-related tensions, continued Brexit uncertainty, an unforeseen increase in interest rates, and market volatility that negatively affects liquidity. That said, our baseline view is still for global macroeconomic growth and relatively low (historically speaking) interest rates. As such, we expect 2020 issuance volume to remain in the $1 trillion neighborhood, with all covered countries/regions posting totals close to their 2019 volumes. On the credit side, we generally expect stability, albeit with pockets of weakness in some sectors and regions.

Key Takeaways:

  • Issuance: We expect the global issuance volume to remain in the $1 trillion neighborhood in 2020, with all covered countries/regions posting totals close to their 2019 volumes.

  • Economic conditions: Our baseline 2020 macroeconomic view is broadly neutral, but with risks weighted to the downside--a precarious balance. Some factors that could have knock-on effects for structure finance credit and issuance are global trade--related tensions, continued Brexit uncertainty, an unforseen increase in interest rates, and market volatility that negatively affects liquidity. 

  • Credit quality: We generally expect stability in 2020, based on our baseline macroeconomic outlook, albeit with pockets of potential weaknesses in some sectors and regions.

Listen to the Podcast

U.S. States 2020 Sector Outlook

Finding Balance In Today’s Lower-For-Longer Economy

As the new decade begins, U.S. state credit is generally strong. Possibly nearing the end of the longest economic expansion in modern history, states are delicately balancing service delivery costs, building reserves, and mitigating future risks like climate change. This balancing act is occurring during a time of growing fixed-cost obligations and a pace of economic growth likely to remain below that seen in past expansionary periods.

The shallow nature of this economic expansion has led to narrow fiscal margins for many states, but for fiscal 2019 state revenues came in higher than in fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2020 revenue projections remain positive. State officials are adjusting expenditure needs within the slower growing revenue-generating environment leading to this stability. Even though states are adjusting to the lower-for-longer economy and generating favorable results, some credit challenges remain and others are emerging. Management continues to play a critical role in maintaining balanced operations and credit stability.

Podcast - 2020 Sector Outlook: State and Local Governments, and Not-for-profit Health Care

It’s January – and that means the start of outlook season here at Extra Credit. Listen in as host Tiffany Tribbitt kicks off the New Year with S&P Global Ratings sector leaders Geoff Buswick, Jane Ridley, and Suzie Desai to tackle what Ratings is watching during 2020 for State and Local Governments, as well as the not-for-profit Health Care sector.

Listen to the Podcast

U.S. Corporate Credit

Outlook 2020: Balancing Act

While simmering trade tensions, uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and the possibility of a shift in the credit cycle pose significant risks to non-financial corporate borrowers, 2020 looks set to be a year of sustained--if subdued--growth for American companies in most sectors.

Outlook For U.S. Leveraged Finance And CLO Video

In this video, Ramki Muthukrishnan, S&P Global Ratings Head of U.S. Leveraged Finance, discusses the 2020 outlook for U.S. Leveraged Loan and High Yield market and the U.S. CLO Market along with Steve Wilkinson and Robert Schulz, Sector Leads for U.S. Leveraged Finance, and with Stephen Anderberg, Sector Lead for U.S. CLOs.

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Petrochemicals

Global petrochemical trends: H1 2020

Global petrochemical markets are entering a new decade with vast opportunities as well as challenges ahead. In this report, S&P Global Platts takes a closer look at what to expect in the first half of 2020 -- narrowing petrochemical margins on high naphtha and shipping costs as well as changing trade flows amid trade tensions between nations and China's drive towards self-sufficiency.

New refinery capacity in China, US-China trade relations to shape global aromatics market in H1 2020

S&P Global Platts managing editor Samar Niazi examines how refinery capacity additions in China and the volatile trade relationship between Washington and Beijing will affect global aromatics market in the first half of 2020.

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Energy

The 2020 US Renewable Energy Outlook

Electricity from renewable power sources is transforming the U.S. electricity grid in ways few would have anticipated just a few years ago. Here, we highlight major trends in markets, technology and regulation to watch for in the year ahead, based on data analysis conducted across our team of energy experts.

Compared to an average installation rate of 10.5 GW per year since 2010, wind and solar installations in 2020 appear likely to exceed 20 GW as developers take advantage of expiring subsidies. S&P Global Market Intelligence further flags nearly 36 GW of wind and solar capacity likely to be added across the country by 2021. Even after federal tax incentives step down, renewable portfolio standard, or RPS, compliance markets will drive 6 GW to 9 GW per year of additions.

Key Takeaways:

  • A survey of policy activity in the coming year shows that the 2020 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission docket is loaded with proceedings consequential for renewables market access, such as transmission, participation in capacity markets, the role of storage and reform of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, FERC's original open-access ruling.

  • Even in states lacking explicit renewables mandates, leading U.S. utilities increasingly understand that renewable electricity can be a driver of rate base growth while legacy assets become a drag on cash flow.

  • Paired solar-plus-storage projects are also poised to foster a new era of renewables integration, with over 85 projects currently under development and more to come.