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U.S. Business Cycle Barometer

Executive Summary

S&P Global sees a 20%-25% risk of recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months, based on economic conditions today, government policy uncertainty, and the likeli hood of continued accommodative-to-neutral Federal Reserve monetary policy. While we anticipate the world's biggest economy will continue to mature on its expansion path in the coming quarters, we remain of the opinion that "economic expansions don't die of old age." Certainly, running too hot for too long can create imbalances that ultimately lead to a correction, but any end to the current cycle would more likely result from, for example, the central bank's tightening of monetary policy more aggressively than is warranted in reaction to real (or perceived) overheating.