articles Corporate /en/research-insights/articles/slowing-down-aca-insurance-marketplace-growth-may-halt-in-2017 content
BY CONTINUING TO USE THIS SITE, YOU ARE AGREEING TO OUR USE OF COOKIES. REVIEW OUR
PRIVACY & COOKIE NOTICE
Log in to other products

Login to Market Intelligence Platform

 /


Looking for more?

Request a Demo

You're one step closer to unlocking our suite of comprehensive and robust tools.

Fill out the form so we can connect you to the right person.

  • First Name*
  • Last Name*
  • Business Email *
  • Phone *
  • Company Name *
  • City *

* Required

In This List

Slowing Down: ACA Insurance Marketplace Growth May Halt in 2017

S&P Global Ratings

S&P Global Ratings' Global Outlook 2019

S&P Global Market Intelligence

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: A Fundamentals View

California's deadliest wildfire highlights emerging risk

Countdown to Brexit: No Deal Moving Into Sight


Slowing Down: ACA Insurance Marketplace Growth May Halt in 2017

The U.S. Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace is heading into its fourth open enrollment (OE4) season. After two successive years of growth in marketplace enrollees, 2017 will likely see a significant slowdown in this pace. S&P Global Ratings is forecasting that the ACA marketplace enrollment (effectuated) will range between 10.2 million and 11.6 million for 2017.

Overview

  • We forecast 2017 ACA marketplace enrollment (effectuated) to range between 10.2 million and 11.6 million.
  • Increased outreach to eligible uninsured will add to the marketplace, but potential premium increases will deduct for the current nonsubsidy enrollees.
  • Our forecasted modest to negative growth is clearly a bump in the road, but doesn't signal "game-over" for the marketplace.

We expect 2017 to be one step forward in increasing penetration to the subsidy-eligible uninsured and off-marketplace population, but one step back for the nonsubsidized marketplace population. The floor to our forecast is the subsidized marketplace enrollees, who remain somewhat hedged against the impact of premium increases.