articles Corporate /en/research-insights/articles/rising-star-activity-is-expected-to-dim-in-2019 content
BY CONTINUING TO USE THIS SITE, YOU ARE AGREEING TO OUR USE OF COOKIES. REVIEW OUR
PRIVACY & COOKIE NOTICE
Log in to other products

Login to Market Intelligence Platform

 /


Looking for more?

Request a Demo

You're one step closer to unlocking our suite of comprehensive and robust tools.

Fill out the form so we can connect you to the right person.

  • First Name*
  • Last Name*
  • Business Email *
  • Phone *
  • Company Name *
  • City *

* Required

In This List
S&P Global Ratings

Rising Star Activity is Expected to Dim in 2019

S&P Dow Jones Indices

MMT or Why Budget Deficits are Ok If They Don’t Grow Too Fast

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Increasing Share of BBB-Rated Bonds and Changing Credit Fundamentals in the Investment-Grade Corporate Bond Market

S&P Global Ratings

From Underdog to Top Dog Charting the Growth of 'BBB'

S&P Global Ratings

Corporate Defaults Take A Pause


Rising Star Activity is Expected to Dim in 2019

May. 03 2019 — (Editor's note: Rising stars are defined as issuers upgraded to investment grade ['BBB-' or higher] from speculative grade ['BB+' or lower] by S&P Global Ratings.)

Key Trends

  • There are six rising stars so far in 2019 (all upgraded by one notch), significantly lower than the tally of 21 rising stars reported during the same period in 2018, when    Russia and companies tied to the sovereign accounted for 33% of rising stars.
  • As of April 8, 2019, 15 issuers globally were potential rising stars (issuers rated 'BB+' with positive outlooks or ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications), marking the lowest tally since July 2010. Because potential rising stars are leading indicators of future rising stars, the number of rising stars is expected to remain low this year.
  • Of the rising stars since 2002, 71% were rated 'BB+' before they were upgraded to investment grade, while 90% were rated in the 'BB' rating category. The positive bias (the proportion of ratings with positive outlooks or on CreditWatch with positive implications) in the 'BB' rating category has tightened to 8.5% as of March 31, below its historical average of 13.6%. Additionally, the positive bias for 'BB+' rated issuers has dropped to 7.6%--less than half of its historical average over the past 24 years, indicating a lower probability of upgrades at this rating level. The positive bias for all issuers rated globally has fallen to 7.2%, below its historical average of 9.5% (see chart 4).
The Rising Stars Tally Remains At Six
During This Period Last Year, There Were 21 Rising Stars
Date Issuer To From Sector/subsector Country Rated debt affected (mil. $)
3/27/19

Votorantim S.A.

BBB- BB+ Forest products and building materials Brazil 5,029
3/26/19

Globalworth Real Estate Investments Ltd.

BBB- BB+ Homebuilders/real estate companies Guernsey 625
3/22/19

Croatia

BBB- BB+ Sovereign Croatia 14,340
3/21/19

Teck Resources Ltd.

BBB- BB+ Metals, mining, and steel Canada 5,900
2/26/19

Equinix Inc.

BBB- BB+ Telecommunications U.S. 7,718
2/5/19

Oil Company Rosneft OJSC

BBB- BB+ Oil and gas Russia 4,500
Data as of April 8, 2019. Source: S&P Global Fixed Income Research.